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Week 3 [09.11-15.11] Black swan and the confirmation bias

This semester I’ve decided to shake things a little bit and approach a new subject outside my expertise and learn something new myself. In order to do that I have browsed through my boyfriend’s YouTube subscriptions and I found Veritasium.

Veritasium is a popular science channel hosted by Derek Muller which has almost 8 million subscribers. His main interests hover around physics, astrophysics and mathematics, but you can also learn something new about pyramids or vitamins overdose. Thanks to this channel you can broaden your horizons, stimulate your brain and build a set of conversation starters ;)

So here is my proposal to you – a short riddle to solve. Please do pause in the middle of watching the video or read my questions before you get to the end of the video!

Enjoy!




Questions:

  1. Pause halfway through watching the video. Do you know what point the host is trying to prove?
  2. Have you ever heard about the black swan story?
  3. Can you find some beliefs of your own that you regard to be real just because you have found a lot  of supporting evidence that you could prove wrong if you’ve looked for a contradiction?
  4. What other channels similar to Veritasium would you recommend?

Comments

Answering your questions:

1. I watch and watch and I can't really understand what it is about. So I don't know what point the host is trying to prove.

2. No, I have never heard of the history of the black swan before. This is something new and interesting for me.

3. Honestly, it's not. I don't have any beliefs or beliefs, such as the earth is flat and we have chips.

4. I wouldn't recommend any other channel like Veritasium as I don't watch stuff like that. But off the topic, I can recommend the What if channel.
Olga Przytula said…
Reply to Igor Goryszewski

The point of the video is that we only look for the evidence supporting our point of view and it is limiting us in our search for truth.

I have checked the channel you recommended. I must admit the topics seem to be a bit abstract but involving at the same time. It's not something I would think about in my free time but I have found them quite interesting
Polina Rybachuk said…
This comment has been removed by the author.
Polina Rybachuk said…
1. Pause halfway through watching the video. Do you know what point the host is trying to prove?

Firstly, I thought that his rule is doubling consecutive numbers. I understood that it’s not related to multiplying, when I noticed that he replies very fastly. You know, every person needs a few seconds to count, but he replied “yes” or “no” very quickly. Then I understood that “his rule” is something very simple, and he doesn’t need any time to count. But I didn't understand for myself, what exactly the rule was, before the author's explanation.

2. Have you ever heard about the black swan story?

No, I didn’t ever hear about the black swan story. I found this topic interesting, maybe I will read more about it.

3. Can you find some beliefs of your own that you regard to be real just because you have found a lot of supporting evidence that you could prove wrong if you’ve looked for a contradiction?

No, I think that beliefs of my own are real, because I have arguments that convince me. Each person has their own way of thinking, so, in my point of view, everyone has beliefs based on their own thoughts, logic and experience.

4. What other channels similar to Veritasium would you recommend?

I can recommend Primer channel on Youtube (link below). It's a great channel with very interesting mathematical simulators. Autor just demonstrates with simulations how natural selection works or explains how the population grows. Really worthy channel.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKzJFdi57J53Vr_BkTfN3uQ
Karol Michalak said…
1. Pause halfway through watching the video. Do you know what point the host is trying to prove?
I was thinking about some powered numbers. But then it striked me that he reply very first to everything, so his rule may not be something you can calculate.

2. Have you ever heard about the black swan story?
No, but now I have another thing to read about.

3. Can you find some beliefs of your own that you regard to be real just because you have found a lot of supporting evidence that you could prove wrong if you’ve looked for a contradiction?
Propably, people by default looks for something that will give them sense that they are walking in a good direction and hearing that magical "no" even if it shows us a right way is usally harder. Becuase from now on we need to think different

4. What other channels similar to Veritasium would you recommend?
Of course Kurzgesagt if I write it right. I don't know many others science related channel. I won't have time to follow at least half of them.
Piotr Góralski said…
1. Yes, I expected this to be the case, but before the rule was disclosed it was impossible to know as there are infinitely many rules that would fit the pattern.
2. I have not heard of the black swan theory, but I have heard of a method of trying to contradict theses put forward. This theory makes sense, and I don't think it's as unusual as it is presented in the film.
3. There are certainly many such beliefs, but we need to combine beliefs for specific situations with other factors. Theories that have exceptions are not bad, they should be applied under the right conditions.
4. I prefer Polish research channels that focus more on new discoveries and research rather than going out to the streets to show that statistical people are not very smart. The scientific channel can be "Nauka to lubię" or "Kasia Gandor"
Pause halfway through watching the video. Do you know what point the host is trying to prove?
I'm not sure but maybe rule is three numbers when next number must be greater then before? After see the solution it turns out I guessed :) Only difference is that he thought about any count of numbers but I said about three numbers.

Have you ever heard about the black swan story?
I have never heard about black swan story before. This sounds logical and indicates the correct way to analyze different phenomena.

Can you find some beliefs of your own that you regard to be real just because you have found a lot of supporting evidence that you could prove wrong if you’ve looked for a contradiction?
What a twisted question! Back to the point I have never analyzed anything in this way or if I did this I have never was aware that I did this. This is a difficult topic for longer analysis and I don't feel like doing it at this time. I give up.

What other channels similar to Veritasium would you recommend?
I think that in some ways related to Veritasium are channels about magic tricks which, apart from the trick itself, show an influence on the subconscious. In Polish we have somebody like Magic with Y. This isn't the direct topic of this presentation, but he has tricks that disrupt our consciousness.
1. Pause halfway through watching the video. Do you know what point the host is trying to prove?

It is really hard to get it so quickly, If I would have more time perhaps I would catch that point but for now it's a black magic to me

2. Have you ever heard about the black swan story?

No I haven't but I find it really interestting so I will defenitly check it out

3.Can you find some beliefs of your own that you regard to be real just because you have found a lot of supporting evidence that you could prove wrong if you’ve looked for a contradiction?

Well that question is more complex than it seems. It really depends on ourselves status quo and many diffrent aspects but I can't answer it strictly in this comment.

4. What other channels similar to Veritasium would you recommend?

Definitly Kurzgezagt are talking subjects simillar to that
Actually, I had guessed correct rule eventually and was conviced that the point is about thinking outside the box.
He intentionally suggested people that rule could be about multiplication, so their answers do not surprise me.
On the other hand, I wonder what would child respond :)

I have never heard about black swan, but this video got me thinking so I might take a look.

I believe it is crucial that we reflected upon our views frequently, so that we can verify what idea holds best.
Especially important are open discussions during which everyone can learn.
Pursuit of truth can be harsh at times, but I am convinced that the reward is well worth the effort.

Actually, recently I tend to watch more and more videos like the one in the article.
Not really have any channel to recommend, since I am still exploring and comparing.
Olga Przytula said…
Reply to Polina Rybachuk

I think the point of the whole video is that once we have some beliefs, we only look for arguments and phenomena supporting our point of view. That is why we are convinced that “our own beliefs are real”. I hope the video might inspire you to look for cracks in your worldview and improve on them, as it inspired me.


Reply to Karol Michalak

You are another person to notice that he was replying very fast! So either the rule is really simple or he is some kind of mathematical prodigy 😊 Nice catch!
If you want to read about the idea of black swan, I can recommend you Incerto series by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. It also explores statistics and probability. It is a really absorbing lecture!
I know Kurzgesagt very well! They have really captivating animations and the topics they write about are really mind-boggling


Reply to Piotr Góralski

I will definitely explore the channels you have mentioned. Veritasium does not only rely on vox pop, but also visits research centers and interviews physicists and mathematicians. I hope the impression of the host trying to prove people wrong was not the dominant one 😉


Reply to Adrian Kamiński

Congrats on getting the rule right!
Maybe English assignment is not the best time for looking for our worldview cracks, but I hope the video will make us all more alert for the confirmation bias phenomenon.


Reply to Michał Jankowski

I know Kurzgesagt, as it was mentioned somewhere above.


Reply to Krzysztof Kowalski

That is a really interesting point of view. Children tend to be more open-minded so their answers could differ from the ones from the video.
1. Pause halfway through watching the video. Do you know what point the host is trying to prove?

I think the author wants to prove that people often look for more difficult solutions and do not start with the simplest. People start to multiply, add and not try simpler solutions.

2. Have you ever heard about the black swan story?

No I haven't but I find it really interestting so I will check it out.

3. Can you find some beliefs of your own that you regard to be real just because you have found a lot of supporting evidence that you could prove wrong if you’ve looked for a contradiction?

I believe that every person has their own views and thoughts. In my opinion, we should often think about things and discuss things with other people. Every view of the matter is good and sometimes it changes things.

4. What other channels similar to Veritasium would you recommend?

I don't know any other similar channel.
1)1)
Half of the movie was enough for me to understand what the host meant. The numbers were confusing because, as a programmer, I immediately associated it with a dual system. When it turned out to be the wrong answer, I tried to find a superset of the dual-revealing system. The only thing that came to mind was, of course, the natural numbers in ascending order.

2)
This is not a completely new thing for me.

3)
It seems to me that I do not have the beliefs that I made up myself. I am a realist and I need evidence from various sources to be sure of something. Some people believe that passenger planes dissolve chemicals, 5g is carcinogenic and vaccines cause autism.

4)
I think that the "Uwaga! Naukowy Bełkot" channel is a good Polish popular science channel. The lecturer communicates knowledge in a very simple way, confirming his observations with scientific research.
Marek Parr said…
1. Pause halfway through watching the video. Do you know what point the host is trying to prove?
Yeah, halfway through I already thought that the rule is either 3 natural numbers or 3 natural numbers in ascending order.

2. Have you ever heard about the black swan story?
No, it's the first time I've heard about it.

3. Can you find some beliefs of your own that you regard to be real just because you have found a lot of supporting evidence that you could prove wrong if you’ve looked for a contradiction?
Oh boy, it's a tough question. I guess that I might have such a beliefs, but I none of them come to my mind right now. But I always try to do some research before I'm starting to believe that something is either true or false and I'm always open for a discussion and if someone proves me wrong, I have no problem agreeing with them.

4. What other channels similar to Veritasium would you recommend?
Unfortunately, I don't know any similar channels.
1. Pause halfway through watching the video. Do you know what point the host is trying to prove?

In the past I have seen a video, where the real question didn't matter, and "follow my rule / do not follow my rule" depended on the facial expressions. So, for example, if you said random numbers and smiled - it followed the rule and when you said exactly the same numbers with a serious face - it didn't follow the rule. However, I am not sure if it is the same in this case. I thought about doubling the number, but then he said: "fits the rule" to the numbers that did not match "my" rule. I have no idea what the rule is.

2. Have you ever heard about the black swan story?

I have never heard about the black swan story, but it makes a lot of sense to me. I always try to find things that confirm the thesis rather than find something that will disprove it. I think the black swan story will change my point of view.

3. Can you find some beliefs of your own that you regard to be real just because you have found a lot of supporting evidence that you could prove wrong if you’ve looked for a contradiction?

Well, in my opinion, it is a very interesting and difficult question. To be honest, I am not able to find any beliefs like that right now. Maybe I wasn't paying attention to it, but in my head, I was always looking for proof and disprove on a given topic? I will definitely think about it during the next discussion with my friends.

4. What other channels similar to Veritasium would you recommend?

Unfortunately, I don't know any other channels similar to Veritasium.
Pause halfway through watching the video. Do you know what point the host is trying to prove?
No, I paused and I thought about it but I didn't see that coming.
Have you ever heard about the black swan story?
No, I didn't. I guess we learn something everyday.
Can you find some beliefs of your own that you regard to be real just because you have found a lot of supporting evidence that you could prove wrong if you’ve looked for a contradiction?
Well it's hard to find something like that from the spot, but I think that propably maybe there are some beliefs in my mind that I didn't looked up.
What other channels similar to Veritasium would you recommend?
I once watched channel Vsauce with similiar topics. Also 'Kurzegstat in a nutshell' is very scientific.
Jakub Łukowski said…
1. I thought that the point that he was trying to prove was that people tends to always choose simplest explanation first. I was wrong, but close enough.

2. I’ve never heard about black swan story

3. I think it is really hard to find someone’s own belief that could be proven wrong. To do so you need to disproof them by yourself. There probably is no person that holds only beliefs that are real, but that is good thing, being wrong is part of learning.

4. I would recommend watching Vsauce channels as they are probably the closest to Veritasium. I also like watching “Big Think” and “PBS Space Time”
Pause halfway through watching the video. Do you know what point the host is trying to prove?

The host is trying to show that our brain is limiting itself in the search for true if you have some unclear information about the purpose of the search.

Have you ever heard about the black swan story?

Yes, I'm familiar with it.

Can you find some beliefs of your own that you regard to be real just because you have found a lot of supporting evidence that you could prove wrong if you’ve looked for a contradiction?

I'm not trying to to prove that somebody is wrong with their beliefs, I'm always trying to understand other persons beliefs and figure out why is that, but never negate them.

What other channels similar to Veritasium would you recommend?

I'm a big fan of "Kurzgesagt - in a nutshell" but I'm not really sure if that's similar.


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