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Week 9 [09.12-15.12.19] New financial crisis. Should we be afraid?


The world’s leading magazines increasingly speaking about the new financial crisis. Is this a prediction or manipulation? I will try to find out the answer in the following article. Before the reading, we must understand that the crisis consists of a huge number of factors and even if it starts locally this spreads to the whole globe quickly. What is more, the crisis is the normal and repeatable economy phenomenon. Over the past 100 years, the world survived 8 global crises.

Tech bubble[i]
The tech bubble can be noticed in technology stock exchanges. These stocks operate the big tech companies which work in the computer technologies field. The examples are the entities that develop artificial intelligence, autonomic car driving, fin-tech and so on. During last decade we have been observing the high valuations, fast ups and downs and speculations. The occurrence of above is clearly described on bitcoin price chart.

China–United States trade war[ii]
This is an ongoing economic conflict between the world’s two largest national economies. The cause of the problem is unfair trade practices from the China side and the goal of the US to do not lose the world’s leading economic position. The Chinese business does not hesitate to steal the intellectual properties, technologies and produce and export it and the Chinese government successfully supports this playing with currency devaluation making the Chinese product more attractive to foreign buyers. The US government setting tariffs and other trade barriers to stop the expansion.
Nowadays the end of the war must be done by signing the US-China trade deal[iii].
You can look closer to this topic on the video below


World’s leading economies recession[iv]
Basing on information about the world’s leading economies GDPs we can see that the expectation of growths was corrected to minor side.
Looking on German’s GDP forecast for the whole of 2019, was revised down from the 0.8% GDP rate projected at the beginning of the year, to just 0.5%. In quarter 3 of 2019 the economy growths only by 0.1%. This is shown on the graphic below.


The reasons are the poor performance, falling worldwide demand for capital goods, which has hit Germany’s export-reliant economy, along with political uncertainty and structural changes in the automotive industry.

Summary
No one can claim that the world falls into the crisis today. We must deeply analyze the information from information sources, be smart with manipulations and be prepared for any consequences of described above cases.

Questions
1)      Do you believe in new crisis?
2)      Are you ready to financial crisis?
3)      What would you do to protect yourself?




[i] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tech_bubble.asp
[ii] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China–United_States_trade_war
[iii] https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/china-trade-deal-final-throes-trump-191127012352330.html
[iv] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/14/germany-q3-gdp-2019.html


Comments

Angelika Dutt said…
1) I don't know if we can talk about " belief" in the next crisis. It's just like the natural order of things in the economy as you presented. Some kind of crisis will certainly come soon, considering the already long-lasting economic growth and prosperity.

2) In my opinion, you cannot be ready for a crisis, because it is not something we are waiting for. I certainly try to have a stable and good job in which I will be a "needed" employee, but I do not know if it is enough. I also try not to spend everything, but to save some money.

3) As I mentioned in the second point, good and constant work and financial security are my way of protecting myself. Additionally, you have to remember that after every storm the sun comes out", so the crisis is only temporary. I am optimistic, so I think that everything always works out in life.
1. Yes, however in different countries the reason of the collapse of the economy is different. I think that in Poland and Europe there is a problem with socialism. Instead of giving people the opportunity and conditions to grow their business, there are high taxes and social security which are necessary to finance various kinds of social help. Moreover, people are discouraged from work by making it unprofitable. To be honest, I look forward to the inevitable failure of Polish and European Union’s economy. It is absolutely terrible that knowing what the outcome of communism was, people desire its return so much.

2. Probably not. As long as we don’t feel the crisis that much, we don’t think about protecting ourselves from it. On the other hand, what can we possibly do? I doubt that considering our current financial situation we can spare a lot more money.

3. There are couple of options. One of them is buying something that won’t lose its value, for example gold. Another option is to leave our country and find a job somewhere else, where the government doesn’t do things as stupid as ours. The UK is going to leave the EU, so it would definitely be harder to get there, but once we do, the conditions to make money should be better than now.
August Micota said…
1) Yes I do, I believe that crisis is going to come sooner than we might expect it and everyone should prepare himself to be ready for it.

2) I believe I am, I'm continously buying, what I believe, are assets that will come in handy when it happens.

3) As i said before I'm buying assets that are not dependent on any currencies values so when it will be needed i'm going to cash them out to bring the most from incoming crisis.
Szymon Kluczek said…
1. Yes, I do. Moreover I think the new cricis is inevitable, it's only a matter of time when it starts. In fact if it’s about economics the financial crisis isn’t something unusual, it just comes once in a while and we can’t change it.

2. It hard to say actually. I have some savings but as long as we can’t be certain how long the crisis will last, I can’t be sure that I’ve saved enough money.

3. I can secure myself for a rainy day. I think it’s a good idea to make some investments. Also opening a deposit account is a appropriate way to protect yourself against crisis.
It seems to me that the announced crisis is coming and will take place. Financial holes in the government's financial plan and inflation will make things worse.

I am ready for the financial crisis, in my opinion people working in IT should be able to cope if they do not spend all their money immediately.

Money must be kept in shares / flats and other forms. It is important that some of the money is not in the form of cash.
Yes, like others say - it's inevitable. I believe that we have no choice, only wait and preparing for it. In general financial crisis is a good spot to make a good money. I'm sorta ready, but no one don't have to be overconfident. We need always keep eyes open. I would prepare some savings and plan B with work/business idea.
Pawel Bluszcz said…
1. No, I think there is no such thing as a crisis. Personally, I call "such activities" - corrections. Salaries increase from year to year, up to a point where "too many people have too much".
2. A tricky question, although as I mentioned in the first section I do not believe in the existence of crises. I believe in the awkwardness of people who do not respect money (they are too wasteful so they cannot survive the worse period)
3. I always try to have 10 times my salary. I think that such savings on the bank account will not allow you to reduce the quality of life.
Maciej Szczypek said…
1. Do you believe in new crisis?
Yes I do, it can not be avoided. It is just how the economy works - there must be a katharsis once for a while.

2. Are you ready to financial crisis?
No one can be really ready for the crisis, as there are too many variables in that period. One just has to survive it somehow.

3. What would you do to protect yourself?
Savings may be a good idea, not only for the crisis. But if the crisis is really big, you should not be that sure about your money on bank account, as there is a marginal chance that a bank will go bankrupt. The best way to protect oneself is to have many different skills so that any new "emergency" job could be easily found.
Mykyta Smirnov said…
1. Crisis are cyclic. They always appear from time to time because the economy works in that way.

2. Actually, no much, but it depends on a kind of crisis. I have some savings but not a lot. The most important at crisis is to have a stable income, without that even after you will have troubles.

3. Make more savings, invest, have a stable work, be sure that my bank accounts are safe. k.
s18716 said…
Do you believe in new crisis?
Every day, people are increasingly inclined to believe that the new economic crisis is already around the corner. Because many countries have mixed policies, and their policies affect not only the local economic situation, but also the global economic market. Therefore, it is very difficult to say whether he will be in the near future.

Are you ready to financial crisis?
It seems to me that a financial crisis is a crisis, because financial or economic institutions on a global scale are not ready for them. I'm not talking about ordinary people. They will suffer in the first place, since usually it affects many areas of life.

What would you do to protect yourself?
It is very difficult to take steps to solve this problem, of course, if you are not the head of a large corporation or the president of the state from G8. It will depend on a very large number of people.
Kuba Berliński said…


1. Not really, I mean there could be possible crisis but I highly doubt it would occur within next few years .

2. No one is ever ready for that. Except for people who cause it...

3. I'd say there is really nothing to do to protect my wealth which equals zero really.
Cem Ates said…
1) Do you believe in new crisis?
Yes, winter is coming.

2) Are you ready to financial crisis?
No, I still continue to buy so many unnecessary things which I don't need.
3) What would you do to protect yourself?
I would love to stop buying unnecessary things. That would save a lot for me.
s15487 said…
1. Yes, the crisis or recession is inevitable and the question is when it happens. When you look at the economic situation at the American and German market, you’ll see how many overrated companies there is. Let’s take some examples: AMD has P/E ratio around 171 at the moment, some other overwhelming examples we can find on our GPW where CD Project has same ratio around 236. There is a lot more tremendously overrated companies on the market and the bubble might break down someday.

2. I would say that nobody can’t be completely prepared and ready for a financial crisis like it is totally unpredictable and nondeterministic.

3. I try to diversify my resources and allocate them to different financial instruments. I think that it might reduce the potential losses.
Bartosz Warda said…
1. Do you believe in new crisis?

The global economy, which has been growing for almost a decade, must slow down when the policy of stimulating the US economy is inevitably quenched. "When the year 2020 comes, conditions will arise for the next collapse," the scientists say, which is likely to be the case.

2. Are you ready to financial crisis?

Rather not, I'm just starting the adventure with work and finances. I don't feel the crisis right now while it's probably already starting.

3. What would you do to protect yourself?

If I had a larger flow of cash I would probably invest in gold. Observing the economic markets, gold has always been of high value. You can also find a job in a safer country and move there.
1. Do you believe in a new crisis?I think the economic crisis will happen, but not yet. It will be the result of the government constantly discouraging people from working. Still, people who are not willing to work are rewarded. For them, PLN 500 is enough to do nothing throughout the month. It doesn't sound too optimistic. The minimum wage will also be raised. Well, I think big salary increases are ahead. The lowest salaries will be raised, but prices will also go up. I get the impression that the state is trying to equalize us with all earnings, and that is simply impossible. Why should will people who do nothing live as much as those who spend their whole lives in work?

2. Are you ready for a financial crisis?I don't know how to prepare for the crisis and whether it is possible. I am quite a young person. I have no loans and I'm not afraid of the crisis. My profession will definitely exist and I think that it will not feel that much. Of course, I have some of my savings for a rainy day. I think that 100% cannot be prepared for something that is to come unexpectedly.

3. What would you do to protect yourself?First of all, I think that there are many ways to save. I should keep some of the money in the bank so that I have quick access to it. I should invest some in the crypto exchange and some on the stock exchange. Maybe I should also look around for 100% remote work somewhere in Switzerland, then move to Vietnam and spend some time there.
1. I guess so. Because what is happening in our country is a tragedy. Some crisis will come sooner or later.

2. Yes, I am ready for the financial crisis. The most important is the financial pillow, so you need money for a rainy day and everything will be fine. And above all you have to be of good cheer.

3. As I wrote above, a financial pillow is the best choice.
Ivan Mazuryk said…
I think after crisis there are two kind of people. Those who did not belief and were not waiting for it, and those who predicted and were prepared. So I would prefer to join to secound group.
Ivan Mazuryk said…
On my opinion it is not so bad as you described. Look on Polish GDP and on gwowth of salaries. Compare the growth with another Europian countries. You write that business is unprofitable, don't you think that it is better to change the business model? The business is unprofitable not becouse of huge taxes, but becouse of better competitors. To look on situation clearly just stop think that "taxes" is your money and try to increas your nett income.
Regarding the solution on crisis I definatelly agree that gold servives everything.
Ivan Mazuryk said…
I am happy that you are able to do that. You are on the right way!
Ivan Mazuryk said…
Okay. To be prepared for crisis it is better to close all loans and to convert the savings into gold.
Ivan Mazuryk said…
Thank you! You are definitely right. Just stay calm, do not spend money for momental enjoy and keep the savings in assets!
Ivan Mazuryk said…
Your opinion is different and I can agree with that!
Ivan Mazuryk said…
I can add one think to point 3 - and to keep your family close. Survival of difficult times is better with close people.
Ivan Mazuryk said…
I do not have anything to add, just share your expirience with anothers. This will help them in the future.
Ivan Mazuryk said…
I think there are no safer country. Remember that when you move abroad you must start everything from the beginning. Or just choose the warm island, fish there and enjoy the life.
Ivan Mazuryk said…
Yes, the financial pillow is good when it is big.
Mykola Suprun said…
1) Even if we only consider the history of economics, it still is a reasonable assumption to say that the economic crisis is inevitable. Sooner or later, something will go wrong.
2)No, not really. It is a near-impossible task for a student.
3)Gathering some currency-agnostic and highly liquid capital is probably the safest option. Then in the case of the crisis, you can even profit from it by buying the stocks while they are low.
1) Do you believe in new crisis?
I do believe in new crisis, it’s just a matter of time, and I think that it will be much sooner than we expect.

2) Are you ready to financial crisis?
Unfortunately, I am not. I think that you can’t be REALLY ready for a financial crisis.

3) What would you do to protect yourself?
To be honest I don’t know, it’s a bad time for investing money but on the other hand it’s stupid not to do anything with it because of inflation. I would probably short stocks that I believe are overpriced.
Paweł Hadacz said…
1.Do you believe in new crisis?

Yes, I believe in new crisis because it is the normal and repeatable economic phenomenon. What is heading towards the global crisis is perhaps unsustainable market rise attributed to increased speculation in technology stocks or economic conflict between China and USA. Moreover, falling worldwide demand for capital goods and political uncertainty may be the causes of such crisis.

2.Are you ready to financial crisis?
You can't be fully ready for a financial crisis because we don't know exactly when it will come. Although I am aware of this when looking at today’s world economies. So I can protect myself in some way.

3.What would you do to protect yourself?

I save my money and I'm constantly developing in my career, so that I hope I can easily keep my job during the potential crisis in the near future.

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