Week 8 [03.12-09.12.18] Outbreaks in nature don’t end well – How will we survive when the population hits 10 billion?
„Outbreaks in nature don’t end well” – How will we survive when the population hits 10 billion?
Put a couple of a protozoa into a petri dish full of nutrient goo and leave them for some time. Without natural enemies, in perfect climate, they will eat and reproduce until they will hit the edge. In that moment they will start drowning in crowd and starving. Do the same fate awaits us?
Unstoppable demographic growth has just begun
The current world population of 7.6 billion is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030 and 10 billion in 2050. This is the only the beginning. Unstoppable demographic growth has just begun.
Shifts in country population rankings
China is known as a the most populous country in the world, but in roughly seven years population of India is expected to surpass that of China. Due to higher population growth of India, margin between these two country is coming down quickly. Right now China and India together account 36.28% of total world population.
Ageing
Globally, population aged 60 or over is growing faster than all younger age groups. That means the number of persons aged 80 or over is projected to triple by 2050. By 2100 is expected to increased nearly seven times its value in 2017.
Don't forget about possible life extension in future.
My questions for you:
1. How are we going to provide everybody with basic needs while
also avoiding the worst impacts of climate change?
2. Could our planet sustain that many people over the long-term?
Could we sustain?
3. Have you generally agree with Charles? Or maybe are you closer to "wizards" or "prophets"?
Sources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2015/09/04/will-the-world-reach-10-billion-people/
https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/world-population-prospects-2017.html
https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/world-population-prospects-2017.html
https://www.ted.com/talks/charles_c_mann_how_will_we_survive_when_the_population_hits_10_billion
Comments
"In the 1890s, the Industrial Revolution had people flocking to the city, and more people equals more horses, and more horses equals more manure. And it was predicted that by the middle of the next century, there would be nine feet of manure covering the streets. But what no one saw coming, was a new technology that would completely obliterate those concerns. The car. Over night, the manure problem vanished."
Here is the same problem that we don't know what might happen and what great inventions are right behind the conner.
Yes, I think our planet can deal with that numbers, but humanity has to completely change the way how we live.
I guess I'm closer to 'wizards'.
We're not going to. Sooner or later there won't be enough basic resources for everybody.
2. Could our planet sustain that many people over the long-term? Could we sustain?
Again, sooner or later we will exceed the capabilities of our species and our planet, as they are also limited.
3. Have you generally agree with Charles? Or maybe are you closer to "wizards" or "prophets"?
I'm am pretty agree with Charles, but I see no possible good future regarding the outbreak. We could avoid it, but we are not monolithic. The whole humanity is a patchwork. While on the one side of the planet the CEO signing the billion revenue contract, on the other side a bunch of tribal people are hunting animals with bows and arrows. While one half of the countries accepts progressivism and liberalism, trying tobuild some kind of future, the other half goes back to the traditionalism, literally going back in time for decades. We are not going to make it. We are doomed.
What is more, if we would like to colonize space, huge population is almost necessary. There are probably at least 100 billion planets in the Milky Way (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milky_Way#cite_note-Nature-20120111-29), therefore 10 billion people is really nothing compared to this.
Colonize space is only guesses and empty hopes for me. We have advanced technology, but in my opinion we are still really far away from that part of future.
Unfortunately, I think that nothing will change in the future. At the moment, people can not provide all the basic needs. The rich will become richer, poorer poorer.
2. Could our planet sustain that many people over the long-term? Could we sustain?
I think that our planet is ready for this path :) But the people who live and use the Earth are not ready to unite to solve the problem before us.
3. Have you generally agree with Charles? Or maybe are you closer to "wizards" or "prophets"?
I definitely agree with the speaker. I am an optimist, I like the way the “wizard”, but I think that the technology of the “wizard” of the future will be available only to rich countries and “prophets” for poor countries.
Also, another good question is: how big is the perti dish? Is it our planet? Or maybe it's our solar system? We are not only expanding our numbers but we are also working on enlarging our petri dish. Of course, this is wizard thinking in me, we still don't have the technology to even permanently stay on the moon, but yes, we are getting there.
But I agree with the prophet's side as well - we have to change our behavior. How we use our resources, how we consume them. We need to be more environmentally friendly, or we will destroy the environment and ourselves in the process.
I think we can sustain our population but it will require us to work on that. So wizards and prophets have to work hand in hand, embrace the renewability and look optimistically at future. We'll survive. And I think we are special. Our minds make us special. So let's use them to find a good solution for future generations.
I think what we has braked main nature humanity control mechanism when started to fight with illness and this is our mistake in general. In current time a lot of countries trying to increase population of people but as I know there another countries that trying to fight with such quick population growing on their territory but I think this restrictions must be bigger than now and we need to try control humanity population in earth scales.
Population goes down as we improve our medicine. Countries with better health a consequence of more education and income which leads people to decide to have less children instead of better health alone. And yet It’s crazy how many people want to eradicate entire chunks of population just because they think we are too many.
we need another plague
Yeah let’s start with you
By the way, accurate quote!
Sure, but creating food is the least of our worries.
"eradicate entire chunks of population just because they think we are too many."
As I said, I'm not agree with Charles in 100%. Ba! Generally I think that he is hyperbolizing this topic. I just presented by his words possible disaster when our population will hit - for example - 25 billion.
"we need another plague"
There are tons of another good, humanitarian methods. We don't need to kill people to decrease population growth, lol.
To be honest, I can't agree with you. We can't stop enveloping medicine, because of some indirect not exactly bad after-effects.
Personally, I think that creating that type of restrictions are not a good idea. Acting like Chinese some years ego is no humanitarian. IMO, some country should stop promoting creating big families etc.
It's really sad that the most poorest countries always have the most high birth rate. I think that nature will regulate the population of earth, and people cannot impact that.
2. Could our planet sustain that many people over the long-term? Could we sustain?
I think planet is ok, it's only people have problems.
3. Have you generally agree with Charles? Or maybe are you closer to "wizards" or "prophets"?
I agree with Charles, and I think that wizards and prophets have seeds of truth.