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Week 5 [12-18.11.18] 3 ways to make better decisions -- by thinking like a computer

Making decisions is not always an easy thing to do, whether you have to decide between two different paths of life or just what to pick for a dinner. Cognitive scientist Tom Griffiths shows three principles that should help you become a better decision maker.

Questions:

  1. Do you consider yourself a good or bad decision maker?
  2. What do you think about those 3 strategies?
  3. Which strategy have you found most interesting and why?

Comments

I consider myself an average decision maker. But one thing I've learned about it is: it's better to make an average decision and implement then endlessly try to judge your choices and try to pick the best one. Indecision is always the worst.
But I like very much those strategies, those are pretty good ideas. I probably use those already during my decision-making process, but it's nice to have them named - this way I can consciously pick them and understand why I am using those strategies.
I think the 37% decision is the best of those 3. It applies to so many situations - we are constantly forced to pick, choose and buy new products and often I spend too much time exploring my options. Sometimes it's nice just to say: I've seen enough, now I will pick the first good one I will encounter :)
Unknown said…
I would assume that it depends on the situation. If I’m well informed about a topic I can definitely make well decisions, but sometimes there is not enough time to think. At that point the instinct takes place. So good retrospectives(looking to past actions, what was right or wrong, what can we learn from it) helps us to decipher what’s best for us, therefore our decision making improves. This comes usually with time as Tom Griffiths explains, small kids explore, later they begin to exploit their knowledge. Best Example: The old guy going to the same restaurant is not boring - he is optimal! (made me laugh a lot) Regarding the Strategies, all of them are useful and I use them unconciusly probably every day. The strategy which is “Least Recently Used” is for me the best one, because it allows me to focus on different topics, not struggling with sometimes unnecessary daily decisions like everyday tasks.
Each of us making a lot of decisions by one day and to my mind it gives us experience which we can use in our future decisions. It depends on problem, but most of decisions to my mind always will be useful, so all my decisions I recognize like good decisions. Those 3 strategies aren't something new for me and I used them in most cases. It's very good strategies but they can't solve all problems. For me most interesting strategy is "Explore/Exploit". Maybe because I used it more often than other two strategies and I think that this strategy could solve more different problems.
Unknown said…
I can't really tell if I'm a good or bad decision maker just because of the fact that we always follow the learning process (as it was mentioned in the video) and don't always think if the decision was a bad or good. We just do what we think is the best for us and observe the outcomes of our actions. Also, I think it's important to mention that most of the bad decisions we make are those influenced by our emotions. So if you know how to control your emotional state than it could make you a better decision maker.
Out of 3 mentioned strategies I really like the last one - "last accessed first out" strategy. Because it's the most accurate way to describe how we deal with problems in our everyday lives. And because of tiny routine details that we are dealing with every day, it's actually the most logical and effective trick to optimize your decision-making p
I wonder why the simple game of chess was not presented as an example. It is a pure game of choices, where each choice leads to consequence, and all kinds of logic are applicable. Many of their principles may as well be used in real life.
Personally I have no favourite strategy. I try to analyze and use them accordingly or even simultaneously. About how good am I at the decision making? Well, all of my decisions have led me to this very moment, and I am pretty satisfied with them.
Filip Sawicki said…
From my experience I consider myself a good decision maker. It’s not always as good as I would imagine but statistically speaking I’m better than worse. These three strategies presented by Tom are optimal to say the least :) . I always admired and tried to implement mathematical approaches to decision making in my everyday life. It is hard but makes me less stressed about the amount of information to process. The most surprising was by far the least recently used strategy to the stockpile of documents, now I have an argument to make more mess on my desk haha.
Unknown said…
It depends on the situation and the amount of knowledge I have about this particular topic. While making every single decision I try to analyze it as much as possible. I would even say that I overanalyze in most of the situations but it gives me the confidence that my decision is actually right and I can prove it taking in consideration all my past experience or facts that I’ve used. Mostly I try to somehow connect every fact or choice that I have to do with math. It’s lot more easier for me to think about it in mathematical way.

All those 3 strategies aren’t new for me. I just got them grouped up and named. Every strategy is extremely useful and can be applied in most of the situations.

I would say that for the most interesting is "Least Recently Used" because it allows me to explore new boundaries and don’t be concentrated on a single thing.
Exactly, I agree with you. IMO, there are few situations where making decision is not that simple. Great example for that would be some well known philosophical problems ;) I also think that strategy mentioned by you is the most interesting. And how about author - what's your favourite strategy?
Unknown said…

Do you consider yourself a good or bad decision maker?

No idea. My decisions might have consequences in 3 or 5 or 20 years. I can't say for sure that my decision to study IT was good when for example, in 4 years solar flare burns all electronics and there is no need at all for any programmer. So my decision is not to answer this question in easy way. ;)

What do you think about those 3 strategies?

They are more like tips for certain tasks. I wouldn't call them decision making strategies in general.

Which strategy have you found most interesting and why?

I use Explore/Exploit mostly. Especially according to food. Not for checking restaurants. I cook by myself as a hobby and when I make something for my friends I decide to Explore or Exploit. If it is the first time they try my food I do one of the recipes that I am well familiar with. If those friends already tasted what I can prepare and liked it I sometimes try to do something I have never done before.
1. That's rather difficult to decide whether I consider myself as good or bad decision maker =) As it is well known fact that people tend to memorize negative experience more often that positive one. It can be easily explained. That happens just for one reason. To protect us from making bad decision. For instance if you meet a lion it is not the best idea to pet him. Or in case of food, we all know that there are hundred types of mushrooms which are poisonous and sometimes it's better to avoid eating them. So, I can't say that I'm a bad decision maker just because I remember lots of such examples. For sure there were good once. Also the fact that you made a good decision does not imply that you will ever realize it. You'll just take it as normal, as expected.
2. I guess those are cool strategies to practice.
3. Probably the best one is 'Explore/Exploit'. Just because there are so many things out there in which we might be interested in but simply we don't know about.
Unknown said…
About myself, I think that I'm a good decision maker once I'm able to gather full information about the situation about which decision should be done. However, as the presenter said we are not always able to have all the needed information to make one hundred percent correct decision. So this strategies which were presented were really interested for me and helpful. For me were interesting his classification of an exploit and explore strategies. Were never before thinking that these basic strategies we are using every day to make a majority of our decisions. And understanding of advantages and disadvantages of each of these helps make better decisions.

P.S.: Great topic, I was considering to write about it a few weeks ago, when was a presenter )).
1. Do you consider yourself a good or bad decision maker?
Ectually I am the worst decision maker that I know. I am not sure if someone can be worse in making decisions than I am.

2. What do you think about those 3 strategies?
I think that Mr. Griffiths presented an interesting way of how to make decision making less stresful. Generally I liked his speech and ideas he mentioned but for me very important is also the emotional value which wasn't mentioned in any of the ideas but as I understood that was the point.

3. Which strategy have you found most interesting and why?
The strategy which i found the most interesting was the strategy for organising things. I like the idea of putting recently used documents on the left side of a box. I am going to try it out at work.
I am not considering myself as especially good decision maker. Of course, there are a lot of decisions which results I cannot observe directly or I will see them in future, but I am often making decisions which results are not entirely satisfying. Fortunately this apply mostly for minor decisions like should I leave house now or in 5 minutes and often I just have to walk a little bit faster as an outcome. In case of more important decisions, which I make less frequently I am trying to think about possible outcomes so I hope they result will be optimal.
In my opinion, these 3 strategies are quite interesting but sometimes some additional conditions are need to be taken into consideration. For example, with clothes problem, there are some special clothes which are being use for special occasions, once in year for example, but cannot be thrown away.
I find strategy with box and documents most interesting, because I had a lot of paper on my desk I sometimes it was hard for me manage it. However currently, I am keeping most of my documents on my computer so it more like fun fact for me.
Unknown said…
That was quite profound talk. Encountered 37% strategy in other book I recently read and was quite surprised to see it here. I would love to use the most optimal processes during my decision making but unfortunately people have a lot of bias so it's much harder then it might seem from the first glance.
Unknown said…
Thanks for posting very interesting talk.
I think that I am pretty good at making decisions, most of my choices turned out to be the right ones. I always take into consideration all important aspects of a given situation e.g.: timeframe in which decision has to be made, priority, data that can help me in making the right choice, other people experiences and advices. All these factors improve my decision making process and enable me to pick the best option.

I really liked the strategy based on exploring 37% of the options available and then choosing the best one among of them. Exploit/explore tradeoff I also find very useful and apply it in my everyday life as it let me to try new things when I can afford it and go with best practices when I need a reliable solution. Least recently used principle based which is, as explained in the video, one of the computer memory management strategies is the most important for me. In general it says that we should focus our attention and efforts on really important things and not wasting our time on things which we don’t use or do not matter for us.
Unknown said…
1. I would like to think of myself as a good decision maker, but honestly it entirely depend on the decision that I'd have to make. The more data I have on the topic related to that decision, the better the chances of me making the right choice.

2. Explore/Exploit seems to be the most useful to me, since it was the only strategy mentioned in this video that I wasn't aware of until now.

3. In my opinion, the most interesting strategy in this video is Least Recently Used. It is fascinating how we use this method unintentionally. I would love to learn more about it and find out if it is just a pure coincidence that we use it on a daily basis unaware of how optimal it is or if there is actually some science behind it.
Maciej Nowak said…
37% strategy is indeed interesting and worth to remember while choosing something in order to not waste too much time when there is just too much options and you may never find out if your pick is really the best.
Unknown said…
I don't think that there is only good or bad decisions. If you ask me if I consider myself as a good decision maker I would tell You that I'm trying to pick the best possible decisions. At the time, when we're making decision, we don't neccesserly know which one is good or bad, we have to assume which one is the best and stick to it. I don't regret any of my decisions - sometimes I win, sometimes I learn. We gain the most experience from our failures and bad assuptions.
About this 3 strategies - I don't like any of. They're based only on logic. When I have to make a decision, of course it have to make sense(logic) but what's most important it has to be congruent with me - and now emotions comes in. Using computer science while making decisions could be a "quick fix" to decide faster, but in my opinion it's not always a good way. I haven't found any of these 3 strategy instresting, maybe the warderobe one - but there is a couple of exceptions in that strategy. Like I said, my decisions are basen on logic as well as emotions that I feel in that particular moment.
Maciej Nowak said…
I wouldn't say that I have a favourite strategy as they can be used in rather different situations with different degrees of importance. I like "Least Recently used" for its simplicity and how it helps to make a decision like a computer, without emotions.
Maciej Nowak said…
I wouldn't recognise all my decisions as a good decisions, as obviously some of them were definitely bad, but as you said, every decision is important because you can learn from them , so in the future you won't repeat them and it is very important to remember about.
Maciej Nowak said…
Chess could be a quite nice representation of 37% as there is to many moves to consider from and not enough time, even for grand masters.
Maciej Nowak said…
Emotions can be really bad while making a decision and can make you to do something that you will really regret. Using decision systems, strategies like those mentioned in video can be really helpful in maintaining clear state of mind and picking the right option.
Don't necessarily agree with explore exploit when visiting somewhere new. I like trying new things. I have found those not trying new things get very bitter and angry as they age more so than the open minded to try new things. Just my experiences and truth...=)
Marcin Zając said…
1. Do you consider yourself a good or bad decision maker?
It's very difficult question. It depends on situation, my knowledge (about concrete situation) and how much time I have to decide.
In my opinion often when we think that such decision was bad, we are unsure, becouse, we can't turn back time.
Generally, I think I'm a good decision maker.

2. What do you think about those 3 strategies?
I think it's good strategies and I try think in a similar way, but I know that I'm not a computer and emotions are important factor.

3. Which strategy have you found most interesting and why?
For me the most interesting is explore/exploit, becouse I use it very often.
Piotr Ciesla said…
I consider myself a mediocre decision-maker. deciding what movie should I watch is sometimes almost a nightmare. Implementing the 37% rule to mine movie choosing would save me a lot of time. I am curious how they’ve calculated this 37%. I plan to change my apartment I will try to find it in 11 days I hope it works : ). I think last recently used (LRU) might be interesting to organize tabs in browser.
Everyone has made some decisins in life that he would rather not do, but i am pretty optimistic about my abilities on decision makung so i would rather call myself a good decision maker. These 3 rules can make someone pretty productive, but i don't think that all people would find them good. I mean it depends on one's character and abilities, some rules and habits may be harmful for someone, and very food for someone else. I liked rule 37% just because i use it pretty often.
Anna Moskalenko said…
I cannot even choose the coffee at the Costa, imagine how bad of decision maker I am :D But to be serious, it depends on situation.
I agree with what the Tom Griffiths said, that we always have to try new things and don’t be afraid to fail in it. Especially if we’re talking about restaurants ;)
37% sounds great, maybe because I use it all the time. Just pick the random option and, who knows, maybe it’ll be the best one. Sometimes if I can’t choose, I just write on my phone options with the numbers for each one, for example from 1 to 4, and asking somebody to choose the number.
1. Do you consider yourself a good or bad decision maker?
I would say say that I'm a rather good decision maker - at this point in time, I think that majority of decisions I have made were good. From the other point of view, I don't really like to make a decision "on the fly" - these might not be the best ones.

2. What do you think about those 3 strategies?
Interesting, and... they make sense :) I really don't really agree with explore/exploit strategy - consider being on holidays - would You eat in the same restaurant for a week or try something new every evening ?

3. Which strategy have you found most interesting and why?
I think that "most recently used" strategy is the most interesting - it might work in many areas of ours daily lives, and sounds to be very rational.
1. Do you consider yourself a good or bad decision maker?
How said one smart men - "Exist only one right decision or a choice - this is your own one". Based in this idea, I'm good in decision maker :)

2. What do you think about those 3 strategies?
I use all the time these strategies, except 37% rule, as it turned out, but I didn't give them names :) For us (IT guys) these strategies is pretty obvious.

3. Which strategy have you found most interesting and why?
The "37% rule" is quite interesting, I'm going to try use this strategies for important decisions. Because other , how I have said I already use.
Wojtek Protasik said…
I'm pretty satisfied with my decisions so far, but I don't know how it would have been if they had been different, so I can't really judge them.

The 37% rule is the only one I was not familiar with. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me as it's usually very hard to discover the whole market thus 37% isn't in fact 37%. The more I look the market gets bigger. I agree that it's reasonable to choose something above average expectations after a research.

For me the most interesting is how often we end up (as a people) crafting solution which reflect nature or our own behaviour.
Usually I make good decisions but I have problem that I don't want to implement that decisions.

I think that this strategies in interesting especially the last one. But last strategy has one problem as I think and this problem behave to "weight" of element in mountain of paper. For example if we will take the last one peace of paper and put it on the top it doesn't mean that we will use it often in near time so we there must be "weight" value that tell us how if this information important and we use it often that depend on time and access count to this information.
Unknown said…
1. Do you consider yourself a good or bad decision maker?

Yes, I can consider myself as a good decision maker. I do not regret decisions I made and I don't have any problem to make a decision. Of course I need to think about it, but it comes easy to me.

2. What do you think about those 3 strategies?

I'm not so sure about them, because for me emotions are as important factors as logic, so computer science is not the best way right there, cause computers are emotionless.

3. Which strategy have you found most interesting and why?
LRU strategy is interesting - it lets us focus on things which are important to us.
Unknown said…
Whether I feel I am a good or bad decision maker really depends on given situation. There have been many occasions on which I am sure I have not made good choices. I try not make the same bad decision again. I reckon that the strategies mentioned are worth analysing in context of everyday life, as applying them might help you pick the right action. The ‘Least recently used’ appeals to me the most.
Kristina Moroz said…
Making decisions always making me confused. I started think "If I do this what will be next?" or "Am I doing right thing or not" and so on. But the main thing is whatever decision I should make the only thing matters is would I regret not trying? I can't say if I am bad or good decision maker. If I made mistake I try to learn something from it.
I really liked this video and I think that every rule is good. Everyone can find something good for themselves and also different situations require different solutions. One of this rules could be good for one problem and another for second problem.
s18716 said…
Do you consider yourself a good or bad decision maker?
It is very difficult to say, I think that in this regard I am somewhere in the middle. About making decisions, I often hear positive feedback from others. But I myself know that sometimes I make mistakes in their adoption.
What do you think about those 3 strategies?
Very useful strategies in fact. To be precise, this is a very good formulation and interpretation. I think at least one of them each of us uses unconsciously. Especially when it comes to situations where you need to make a quick decision, and we don’t have time to apply these strategies, but we accept it at some other levels of thinking.
Which strategy have you found most interesting and why?
I liked the strategy “Least Recently Used” more. I find it closest to me, because, as it turned out in most cases, I use it.
Unknown said…
Sometimes, my decisions are not well thought out. It is connected with the opposite consequences of which I am sometimes dissatisfied. Sometimes they are to determine little important in my life. Everyone certainly has it, it's nothing new. But it's important to keep things going well and are well thought out. However, I think that my decisions are thoughtful.
These 3 strategies presented in the film are very interesting and useful, I think that some of them I will have to introduce into my life. Especially the one with the example of choosing a restaurant.
The most interesting strategy for me seems to be the first one: the explore / exploit trade off seems to be the most decisive model for me.
Aleksander Wiza said…
Personally I believe judging ones decision-making ability is not a tangible concept, the aftermath of following ones commitment may not be apparent on first sight and could manifest itself in distant future. Even if - at first sight - it seems we've followed the right path, the unforeseeable circumstances can cause our previous judgement to be incorrect. Hence, I'd rather consider myself a careful decision maker instead of a good or bad one, although I believe most of the crucial decisions that truly had a significant impact on my life, were the right ones.

Each and every one of the strategies mentioned by the speaker, can be useful depending on the circumstances, choosing an optimal one is dependent on the task they are meant to resolve. Some of them may reduce the time needed on deciding on the issue, although at the end of the day not bring an optimal or desired result.

The strategy I've found the most enthralling was the "explore/exploit" method, yet despite being immensely useful decision-making tool, hard coding it into our consciousness may result in losing valuable information which may prove useful one day or another.
Ahmed Elsawi said…
This one of the best videos I watched before!
Thank you for share it.
................................................................................
Do you consider yourself a good or bad decision maker?

In general, I think I'm a good decision maker.
................................................................................
What do you think about those 3 strategies?

I think it's pretty strategies and I'll try to think about it again and again.
................................................................................
Which strategy have you found most interesting and why?
For me is to explore/exploit.

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