Skip to main content

Week 11 [14-20.01.19] The Doomsday Clock

.
This is the Doomsday clock.



It was designed back in 1947 by artist Martyl Langsdorf. And the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists sets the clock to show how much time we have left until midnight. Midnight in this case meaning nuclear armageddon and the end of humanity.



In January 2017, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists revealed that the clock ticked 30 seconds closer than last year to the end of times and cited, among other things, climate change, cyber security, nuclear weapons and Donald Trump as causes. In 2018 the clock ticked 30 closer one more time. And this time North Korean nuclear concerns and relationships between NATO and Russia were mentioned.



At the announcement, executive director of the Bulletin, Rachel Bronson, said there were two concerns that stood above the rest. “The first has been the cavalier and reckless language used across the globe, especially in the United States, during the presidential election and after. And the second is a growing disregard of scientific expertise.”

Cold war and world conflict have influenced the clock’s time over the years, but disregard for scientific expertise by global populist leaders, including an American president, has never been cited as a doomsday factor. That said, the newest changes to the clock are the smallest in its history, meaning doomsday, thankfully, isn't necessarily any more imminent. So how accurate is the Doomsday Clock, and why was it made in the first place? The “Doomsday Clock” first debuted in 1947 as a graphic on the cover of the first edition of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ magazine.

Langsdorf and other concerned scientists founded The Bulletin two years prior, feeling a responsibility to warn and educate the public about the possibly disastrous consequences of their creations. Atomic bombs had been used for the first time in 1945, killing 130,000 residents of the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Initially, the time on the clock depicted the hour hand pointing straight at the zero hour, with the minute hand placed at just seven minutes before midnight. The time was completely arbitrary, though. Langsdorf just thought “it seemed the right time.” The graphic quickly adopted the name of The Doomsday Clock, and eventually gained world recognition as a symbol for the threat of an impending nuclear apocalypse.

Since 1947, the Bulletin has regularly adjusted the clock face when they perceive a change in threat level, also taking into account other, non-nuclear factors, like climate change, bio weapons and cyber threats. But a decade later, the clock turned back to 12 minutes before midnight thanks to the US and Soviet Union ending atmospheric nuclear testing “A milestone in ‘63. East and West ban the testing of nuclear weapons in the atmosphere.”



“Whether about issues on which we agreed or disagreed, the spirit of candor and openness a desire not just to understand, but to build bridges has shown through. In every case, dangerous or potentially dangerous events dictated whether the minute hand moved closer to or away from Doomsday, but 2018 is the first time since the Cold War that the Bulletin expressed deep concern about the disposition of an American president toward science and the nuclear weapons.

Even though the outlook seems grim, it’s important to remember what the time on the clock is really meant to show: it’s not Doomsday yet, and on THIS clock, we can turn back time.

Sources:

  1. https://thebulletin.org
  2. https://thebulletin.org/2018-doomsday-clock-statement/
  3. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-42823734
Questions:
  1. What do you think about predictions of the Doomsday clock?
  2. What do you think about current situation in the world? Is it stable or we on the verge of nuclear war?
  3. What do you think about nuclear weapon? Is it necessary evil to keep the peace in the world?



Comments

Unknown said…
I believe that the Doomsday Clock still predicts the likely start of a nuclear war, but the scientists behind it analyze the situation not through the media, so their data may be much more likely than what we can be watch on TV.
It seems to me that nuclear weapons are a insurance for such large and influential countries as Russia, America, Iran. The situation can change, if these countries think that no one will fight them when they interfere in the economies of other countries, destroy their borders and create disorder. After which they can use nuclear weapons.
Yes, I am sure that it is evil, but also an advantage and a huge development.
Illia Lukisha said…
I think that many countries are diminishing probability of other less developed countries(North Korea, Iran) to create a nuclear weapons, and the doomsday clock is quite accurate in predictions.
Unknown said…


What do you think about predictions of the Doomsday clock?
It is not predicting. It is showing us how much tension there is. How much unrest, our fear. I is not a prediction. It is a symbol. A reminder, how close we are to total annihilation.

What do you think about current situation in the world? Is it stable or we on the verge of nuclear war?
On the verge. China is gaining power. Through clever economy and political play. As our history showed, where the old hegemony is afraid of the new one, the result is often a war. In this case, it would be World War 3.

What do you think about nuclear weapon? Is it necessary evil to keep the peace in the world?

No. It is obligatory, that there was always another side of political conflict with it. If all countries with nuclear power started bulling rest of the countries, we would be doomed.
I don't really think you can call it a prediction. Doomsday clock is just someone's opinion on the topic of the end of the world. And as much as it has some correlation to the world's political situation, I don't think it's really something we should fear. It's just a graphic way to say "People, shape up, we could do so much better".
I remember the early 80s. At school, we had a discussion what to do in case of nuclear attack and I remember I had some really vivid nightmares about the end of the world. It was scary. It's nothing like it right now. The world might look grim to some young people, but it's not as divided as it was around 70s and 80s. Of course, listening to Trump or Putin or reading about the war in Siria or conflict in Ukraine can make your skin crawl, but it's so far from the fear I felt back then.
Using such visual representation of dangers of today's world is still good I think. If it will make at least some people stop and think, to plan for better tomorrow, we will all be better off. But don't take it too seriously. It's not a prediction, just an opinion.
Regarding nuclear war? I think we are still far from it. There is not much use of this weapon as no one will gain nothing by using it. It can be used as the deferent, it can be used as a bargain card, but I hope it will not really be used as a weapon. It just costs too much to use it in every possible sense.
I also don't think it's something that's keeping the world at peace. It's people who are doing it, not weapons. Who knows, maybe nuclear weapon will save us one day - there are plans to use it to deflect incoming asteroids in case Earth is in danger. I'm an optimist here.
I think that the Doomsday clock is a very interesting idea that alerts the world about threats.

I believe that the situation in the world is very unstable. I do not think that we are on the brink of a nuclear war. The economic race and the arms race between the US and China are underway, the US is starting to lose, which is very dangerous. The US is trying to destabilize Europe with wars in the Middle East and imposing sanctions on Russia by destroying its economy, which is carrying out confections in Ukraine.

I believe that nuclear weapons are the only guarantee of peace in the world. Nobody who is mentally healthy would like to use it. However, the world should decide whether each country can own nuclear weapons or all countries agree to its complete disarmament. Nuclear weapons are dangerous because they can be caught by madmen or terrorists. At the moment only a few countries in the world have nuclear weapons, which allows them to have a stronger position.
I think that predictions of the Doomsday clock are not very precise. This clock is based on news, observations and political beliefs in my opinion. It is somehow funny that it was close to midnight (nuclear armageddon) when Trump was threatening North Korea. I am not sure why people believe that there can be something like “war” between US and this country. North Korea is poor, small piece of land. Possessing huge nuclear arsenal requires tons of money and technology. Even if the leaders of the Korea gone insane and drop one or two bombs somewhere, they would probably get anihilated in an instant and the South Korea would became an island.
I don't think that we are on the verge of nuclear war. Of course, it may happen, but is highly unlikely, it is just too noneconomic (everything is destroyed).
I think that nuclear weapon isn’t that bad. In my opinion it helps to keep in check some countries which may would like to bomb something with their own weapon. Knowing that by using nuclear weapon they would cross certain line, and they would got annihilated by more powerful countries, prevents them from doing that.
Unknown said…
I think that the doomsday clock is completely worthless for predicting the "end of the world" - there is no easy way to predict such a thing, as there are way too many variables involved, many of which are unknown. As such, the doomsday clock is really only a publicity stunt of sorts. However, this is not necessarily a bad thing - drawing attention to the various problems that humanity might face could very well end up benefiting us in the end.

As for the current situation in the world, I don't really know what to think about it - the world is a complicated place, and there are way too many unknowns for me to make a conclusion that would have a decent chance of being accurate.

As far as nuclear weapons are concerned, my thoughts on the subject are similar - their existence has certainly affected the world greatly, but it's very difficult to say how much good and bad their existence has caused.
>...cyber security, nuclear weapons and Donald Trump as causes.

That one actually got me laughing.

Personally I do not think that this clock has any actual effect on the worldwide politics. It is just a symbol for those who find themselves poetic.
Illia Lukisha said…
I agree, that it's not prediction, but it shows us probability of nuclear war, and looking on what's going on for the last 10 years, I think that the clock is quite accurate measurement of this probability.
I also think that not only China, but a lot of countries now, become dangerous, and 20 years ago, no one could imagine that.
Illia Lukisha said…
I should disagree with you, because that's not "just someones opinion", because this is group of scientist and specialists from different domains and they take to account not only political situation, but other factors like global warming, and researching of new resources under the shelf of the seas.
Also like your thoughts about using nuclear weapons as a defend measure and not like weapons, really interesting.
Illia Lukisha said…
But also nuclear weapon create lever for countries who own it to do what they want even if they violate international law(Russia & US as an example). And other countries just cannot resist such pressure. What do you think about it?
Illia Lukisha said…
Maybe you are right that small countries won't start a war, but remember that Japan is also not a big country, but during World War II theirs army was real danger for the United States, and they hadn't hesitated to test their weapons in action. Also North Korea, as far as I know, is really ambitious and dangerous country that really want to return south side of an island under control.
Also what do you think when countries that have nuclear weapons become uncontrollable and violate agreements signed before without any consequences.
Concept of this clock is interesting but to my mind it's only clock and nothing else. Because it's impossible to predict human actions. Current situation in the world is not stable but all governments understand that if this is a nuclear war, it will be the last war for all humanity. And I think if war comes, it will be not nuclear. Nuclear weapon only needs to show others that this country has a powerful weapon and it's dangerous to attack them. This battle for resources and lands will probably last until all humanity will find common enemy, which unite all countries.
Peter Clemenza said…


What do you think about predictions of the Doomsday clock?
Now, they are probably worthless. Come on situation is for real worse than in 1953? It was Kennedy's bluff
that made him won this crisis.

What do you think about current situation in the world? Is it stable or we on the verge of nuclear war?
It is quite stable, however Israel is whining about Irans nuclear program.

What do you think about nuclear weapon? Is it necessary evil to keep the peace in the world?
Thanks to nuclear weapons we now have peace, but it wont be given for long, one day we will invent a weapon
thats more powerfull or some defence system it's able to destroy incoming icbm missles.
Mykhailo Reznyk said…
It is an interesting concept and very cool metaphor. Even thought it is more symbolic rather then scientific representation of how close we are to the Doomsday. I think it servers the role of a reminder for all nations, that even though we are very different, we have different policies, religions and worldviews, the End, with a weapon of mass destruction, will be the same for all of us. But you know, we live in interesting times. Progress is moving faster and faster every day, and yet current situation in the world is very unstable. There are a lot of local and global conflicts and challenges all over the globe, causing the Doomsday clock to tick. But, to be honest, I think we will overcome it. And yes, even though, nuclear weapon is a very dangerous, I don’t think we should get rid of it. Dynamite was invented to ease the mining process, but later we found out that we can also kill with it. So instead of getting rid of powerful tool, we better learn how to use it for benefits of our civilizations.
What do you think about predictions of the doomsday clock?
I think this is a very interesting idea. These clocks are kept in the tone of the governments of many countries. They show that their decisions can sometimes be irreversible and lead to a catastrophe.
What do you think about current situation in the world? Is it stable or we on the verge of nuclear war?
The political situation in the world is very far from stable. Countries are gaining strength and political weight. Each country wants events to develop in its favor. And the more forces a country gains, the harder it is to solve problems with the help of diplomacy.
What do you think about nuclear weapon? Is it necessary evil to keep the peace in the world?
I think nuclear weapons are inevitable evil. Sooner or later it must have to be invented anyway. In the military arsenal of various powers, this is only one of the terrible tools.
I think that Doomsday clock show to us how deep conflicts in the world at this time and I think that this is fine way to explain how far we go with our unresolved "global" questions. I think that current situation is quite unstable but I'm not sure that we so close to nuclear war as most people think. Of course there exist a lot of conflicts and a lot of countries has own interests in them but I believe that we will find solution how to prevent nuclear war.
It is an interesting way of trying to "predict" the end of our times but it is like predicting everything else, you won't be sure 100 %.
We have terrible situation today. It is so bad that I would really like to leave this planet.
Fighting for territory in 21 century is nonsense. Spending trillions of dollars on military instead of preventing global warming, saving species form extinction is just crazy for me. And the most terrifying part for me is nothing is changing. Even worse, governments continue developing new weapons of mass distraction. Today, we are the parasites of our planet, until we totally change the way of running countries to be in balance which probably won't happen.
I guess we must have a nuclear weapon but just in order to protect our planet from out-space danger like asteroid or something.

Popular posts from this blog

Week 11 [03-09.06.2019] The problem with ecological cars emission in UK

The problem with ecological cars emission in UK Since the adoption of the European Emission Allowance Directive in the European Parliament, all car makers have tried to submit. Since 1992, the Euro I standard has been in force, which limited the emission of carbon monoxide to the atmosphere. The Euro VI standard currently applies, which limits the series of exhaust gases. These include: hydrocarbons, nitrogen and carbon oxides, and dust.   The most significant change was brought by the Euro IV standard. For the first time it introduced the limitation of nitrogen oxides, which are responsible for the harmful compounds of smog.   What is smog?   Smog consists of sulfur oxides, nitrogen and carbon. In addition, solid substances such as suspended dust (PM). Dust suspend in atmospheric aerosols may be in liquid and solid form. These can be particles of sea salt, clouds from the Sahara and artificial compounds made by people. These compounds often come fr

Week 12 (12.01-18.01.15) Are you an early bird or a night owl ?

Owls are nocturnal creatures. They’re wide awake at night and they sleep during the day. If this sounds like bliss to you, then, like about 20 percent of the population who find themselves most active at around 9 pm, you may fall into the same category as our feathered friend. Night owls often have difficulty waking up in the morning, and like to be up late at night.  Studies of animal behaviour indicate that being a night owl may actually be built into some people’s genes. This would explain why those late-to-bed, late-to-rise people find it so difficult to change their behaviour. The trouble for night owls is that they just have to be at places such as work and school far too early. This is when the alarm clock becomes the night owl’s most important survival tool. Experts say that one way for a night owl to beat their dependence on their alarm clocks is to sleep with the curtains open. The Theory is that if they do so, the morning sunlight will awaken them gently and naturally.

Week 4 [06-12.11.2017] This is what happens when you reply to spam email.

James Veitch is a British comedian. In today’s Ted Talk James with characteristic for himself a sense of humor shows how he deals with spam emails and why responding to junk messages may be sometimes dangerous. Questions: What do you think about James’s  way of dealing with spam? Why are junk messages legal, even though it sometimes may be a fraud? Dou you have a problem with spam? How do you deal with with it?