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Week 10 [08.01 - 14.01.2018] Will automation take away all our jobs ?


We all live in the Information Age, we are just surrounded by computers and robots in every aspect of our life. Needless to say, computers and robots are taking over more and more roles in today’s world. I am sure that many people nowadays are wondering if one day they will become redundant because the job which they are currently doing will be automated. What is more, we are constantly hearing all the experts predicting mass redundancies because of the process of automation. This of course makes many people to be frightened of losing their jobs in the not-so-distant future. David Autor in his talk is analyzing the impact that new technologies have on the  job market and on economy as a whole. He is pointing out emerging trends of shrinking number of middle-skill jobs which are based on quite simple rules and procedures, which are perfect candidates for automation. However, he is far from telling us that we are going to lose our jobs soon because of computers and rather  gives examples from the past which showed that despite technical development, number of jobs on the market is constantly increasing.




Questions:
  1. Do you agree with David Autor’s observations about influence that technology has on job market ?
  2. Can you give examples of jobs which are currently done by humans and which you think will be automated soon ?
  3. What should the state do in order to prepare next generations for this fast paced work environment ?

Comments

Anonymous said…
A good example of job which could be automated soon is cashier. Even now in many markets there are automatic cashes where there is no need of human. Also there are many ticket machines and we can but tickets using phones so I think we won't need humans doing this job soon.
Unknown said…
Robots can't think, invent or be creative. While it's true, there will be enough jobs for humans. I think there would be no need in such jobs as cashier/seller, couriers, it'd be cheaper to robots do these jobs.
In my opinion, there will be less doctors in the future, as their job will be done by robots (or just partly).
But this is terrifying and amazing at the same time, because robots now can play games and draw. Some days ago I also found information that robot (A.I) created a video, added music and it all lokeed well as if it was made by a man.
Unknown said…
Thanks for your comment Sylwia, retail is undoubtedly one of the areas where automation is mostly visible. By the way, I am curious, what are the annual savings for retailers from replacing error-prone, human-operated cash desks with automatic self-checkout systems ?
Unknown said…
I agree with David Autor's observations. I think that it's good way of development and it's great to use brain to find something what can relieve our hands from physical work.
I'm sure that one day all shops cashier will change into machines. Also i think that public transport one day will be totally automatic.
I think that the state shouldn't do anything and be only night watch of invisible hand of the market.
Unknown said…
Yes I agree with David that technology have influence on job market. I think that in the near future the whole transport will change for automatc drivers/cars. I don't know what we can do with it. I believe that in the world there must be balance and there will be some alternative way for us.
Automatic things are very expensive. And it will be lot of time before it happens.
I agree with David Autor's observation. There are many jobs that are in process of taking over it by automation, like cashier in a shop or couriers. Also we are close to exchange drivers by autonomous cars (TAXI drivers, truck drivers and many other). There is a site called willrobotstakemyjob.com where you can see the probability of automation of specific job. It shows that there is a 48% chance of automation of a computer programmer.
Unknown said…
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said…
Thank you for your opinion. I agree with your statements and also think that currently robots and artificial intelligence are good at doing tasks or making decisions based on facts, rules, calculations and algorithms. When it comes to arts, creativity or out of the box thinking - it is still not robots’ domain. It seems that all the professions involving one of those skills will not be a subject to automation in the near future.
Unknown said…
Thanks for the comment and link provided. I would agree that transport is another sector which can and actually is taking advantage of automation. As you’ve mentioned, this is inevitably related to rapid development of autonomous vehicles and the only thing that prevents them from being widely used is the lack of appropriate legal regulations.
Unknown said…
I disagree, I think A.I. must to help people, not replace them.
Some people work in such jobs as cashier/seller, couriers ... cuz other work can't find and if instead of them will be A.I.?In life something failed or has occurred and now they can't find work. Robots with A.I. won't be free, not everyone can buy it.
A. I. is now developing that would capitalize on this than to help.  
Unknown said…
I had a discussion on such topic with my friend the other day. All of these, of course, are only theoretical thoughts, but it seems to be possible in our future. What we see nowadays, robots are taking the jobs which require repeatable actions. You can see such mechanisms on car factories or almost every food factory. These robots don't make any decisions, they just follow their action pattern. And they still require human control. But, what if humans make a decision, like: "yeah, we have more important things to do, let these more smarter robots will look after these robots". So the factories now are fully autonomous, robots has some power to control the work flow on factories, humans now need only to control the outcome of these factories (total production, the appearance of the final product, observing of the market etc). And yet another decision: "yeah, I don't want to spend nights analyzing these numbers or I don't want to pay other people fo it, I will make a robots for it". What do we have now: robots are in total control of the factories and even of some part of the market. All humans need to do now is watch money flow in their hands.

Ok, let us forget about industry at the moment and let us switch to, for example, building stuff. It is not the secret that we are on the road to overpopulation of Earth. So we need to search for territories to build new cities, and, of course, build them. But how can you find a right proportion between comfort of individual human being and a compact shape of the city? Don't you think that artificial algorithm can do it better than human? Of course, it can. Can it also make a better decision than human, of which shape should every residential building be to save the proportion, I've wrote above? Yes it can. So now even our homes are created by self-controlled robots.

Let us continue with such cities. To make life in them safe and comfortable, you need provide services, like police, firefighters, medical service etc. Can robots do such things better than humans, reducing the amount of killed civillians during crimes chasing, for example, or make diagnosis faster and more precise than humans? Yes, they can. What about places like cinemas, cafes, restaurants? Well, robots have built that city, let us ask them, where it is better to place them. You see? Now robots have some control on our lifes. And they will have more and more. At some point, humanity will delegate all stuff-making and decision-making tasks to the machines, what is left is a life full of pleasures and maybe fun (remember animated movie "Wall-e"?). We will think that we are still in charge of machines, but is that so? So all these worries about robots taking the jobs is only the top of the iceberg. What if robots will take away your life and you won't even notice it?
Unknown said…
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said…
You are talking about the future that is not so close, where AI is smarter than human in all aspects. And if we are talking about the future, than we should take into consideration other stuff that might happen: colonization of other planets, virtual reality, and - who knows? - contact with other civilizations. And in this case it will give a lot of new branches of industry - spaceships manufacturing, transportation of cargo between planets, colonization science and so on. Of course this is only one of the scenarios that might happen(perhaps the best-case scenario from all possible ones).
Magdalena Popek said…
I've heard about machines taking peoples' jobs. There were even robots programming other robots. I think people having minimum wage jobs can be replaced by machines. For example cashiers. We already have self-service cash-registers where for 8 registers there is only one employee. I think future generations should be more aware of jobs where they can't be substituted by machines.
I highly doubt we will face problem of human work being replaced everywhere. Yes inprecise works and machinery humans are unwanted most of the time but as we all know "Hand Made" is still very valuable mark. We value craftsmanship put into cars,the passion that go into little details, the roughness of material after working on it. Another thing is that machines still require us to oversee them, for us to do conservatory works on them etc..

I believe we will enter a "phase" in which we will start replacing food industry workers, waitresses, barmans, fast food employees with machines - then we will quickly get over it and return to old ways, because human factor cannot be substituted in some jobs. Imagine waitress being a bland emotion less machine.

Culture of work has to raise, simplyfy what can be simplyfied, put mahine where its needed for a stable and reliable workchain.. If i were to get an automatic peeler and cutter for fries with enough training for staff i can make my fries bar much efficient while keeping them in job.
Unknown said…
Thank you for your comment. Cost is always an important issue when it comes to large-scale implementations of latest technical developments. Fortunately, like with all other products on the market, with the growing popularity, prices of this kind of devices will be constantly decreasing.
It's definitely going to happen sooner or later, just like how machines were introduced in all kind of factories a while ago, but there is still going to be a need of people to actually fix those robots, improve them, take care. We might just shift the market from current state to a need of even more engineers, even more skilled people with even bigger knowledge and practical experience. Is this good? Well, I believe that humanity is too stupid as it is and we should encourage people to fullfil their ambitions and aim for better, but at the same time I wouldn't want to be in charge of making majority of population struggle just because they can't now find any job they're skilled for.

So yeah, mixed feelings. Yes for technology, good for me, but probably it'll kill even more job positions, shifting jobs even more into IT sector.
Unknown said…
I do agree. For example cashiers can be easily replaced by automates. They already, partially are. They should be, if we have the technology, the means to automate tasks which are repetitive and don't help people to develop themselves then let robots do it. Lets give people work that benefits them somehow, how is standing whole day by the line and pushing a button promoting their grow as a person, human being? Dull, repetitive work should be done by robots. Creative, satisfactionary work should be done by people. Sounds good but changes to law, economic, financial structures required for such transition would be huge and take many years. Hope we'll achieved it someday.
I totally agree with David Autor. The best example that comes to my head is supermarker cashier. Even now you can find almost in every big supermarket like carrefour or tesco places that allow you to scan the products on your own and pay for them without presence of cashier. I have no idea what state could do to prepare young people for this.
Unknown said…
I don't see the point of this talk. Why develop anything if we're supposed to be afraid of replacing jobs with automation? Maybe we should wait for the solar flare that will fry all the electronics in the world and then stay in the dark ages because at least we will have more jobs.
The author of this talk doesn't give any solutions that could solve the problem but still talks about the subject because they paid him to. I find it unnecessary, redundant and all other synonyms to a "pointless" word.
Do you agree with David Autor’s observations about influence that technology has on job market ?
Yes I think he has some points right - many jobs will be taken away and replaced by robots especially in logistic and transportation.
Can you give examples of jobs which are currently done by humans and which you think will be automated soon ?
All logistic jobs, taxi drivers if automatic cars will be more common.
What should the state do in order to prepare next generations for this fast paced work environment ?
Nothing - we just have to get used to it.
Unknown said…
Thanks for sharing your opinion. As it was mentioned earlier - machines are taking over for humans in cashier jobs. This means that those people will need re-training which allow them to make a career shift.

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