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Week 5 [03.04 - 09.04.2017] Digital postmen...

Source: http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21719487-amazon-has-potential-meet-expectations-investors-success-will-bring-big

We live in digital reality and it’s a fact. Many problems were solved thanks to technology which is being developed at a crazy rate. As always, there are pros and cons of using technology and replacing people with machines. In many cases, we don’t think about just ‘replacing’, but problems are more complex. One of them is using drones as a delivery tool. With no doubt, there’s going to be huge progress in this field, but is this change really good?

First of all, there is an unemployment problem. Replacing postmen or suppliers (e.g. food suppliers) with drones is connected with losing jobs. Of course, it is a similar problem to ‘driverless world’ described two weeks ago by Sylwia Pechcin, but not the same. Postmen and suppliers will be needed, because of security reasons (e.g. money distribution), but most of them will be made redundant.

Secondly, logistics,  I mean e.g. where to leave the package, how often drones will collide with each other or cause some damages. Probably for most of us these problems are not so big, but they exist and we need to solve them.

Next, the biggest problem for me – surveillance. To be honest, I’m crazy about it and can’t imagine the sky with thousands of drones. Most of them will be welcomed – they will have our stuff and after leaving it, they will fly away. But the others can be used to follow us or observe our houses. They will violate our privacy. Is this a real problem? Perhaps, I am oversensitive...


Source: http://www.swiatdronow.pl/najwieksze-wyzwania-stojace-branza-dronow

On the other hand, drone delivery gives us unbelievable possibility to improve our lives. Thanks to it, we will get  ordered stuff much faster and drones will be able to leave our package regardless of our absence. Perhaps, we will be able to change a delivery address just a few minutes before its delivery.
What’s more, the drone delivery will cut costs both for end users and companies.

To sum up, the era of drones is coming. In my opinion, despite some ‘bad’ arguments, this positive one is much more important for us. Now, we are talking about using drones for the package delivery, but who knows what will they be used for tomorrow?

Here is 2-minutes video that shows the first delivery by Amazon :) 


Questions:
  1. What do you think about the drone delivery?
  2. Do you agree with its disadvantages? Do you see the surveillance problem?
  3. Can you give some other examples of bad/good way of using drones?
  4. Do you know any technical problems with drones  usage and the ways of resolving it? Such as too weak batteries, capacity limit etc.?

Comments

Unknown said…
I think that drones are good idea. I heard that post office has a problem with finding new postmen. It's true that machines take our jobs but what can I do ? This is reality and future. Every machine has advantages and disadvantages. I'm worried that the wrong person could take my parcel. They developed drones so much in the last years. I think in the future it will be normall way of traveling.
Unknown said…
I think drones are good things, however I would probably ban drones wearing any cameras from flying around people's properties, since it my violate their privacy. Surveillance will always be a problem, but properly constructed law should be able to restrain companies from using it improperly. As to other drones usages, I recently read about sugling dugs with drones:
http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/24/technology/dedrone-drone-prisons/
Anonymous said…
The main problem I can see is fact that such a drone can be easily hacked. It doesn't matter in case when we are waiting for pizza and it will never come. But what when we are waiting for delivery some expensive stuff like phones, laptops and other?
Secondly I often buy something through the Internet what will be delivered by a postman and then I'm not home at the day of delivery. Our postman knows that he should leave my stuff to my grandmother leaving across the street. Would drone know that? Would it recognize if I'm home or not?
Another problem what comes to my mind is really long way to travel by drone. All this idea could be a great solution for deliveries from another countries which may last months. But it's not possible because of drone limits such as battery etc.
I think that drones are quite a good and logical next step in technological progress. Too bad that the machines take our jobs and before implementation, it would be nice to make some kind of global reform, so that people don't be hungry because they have no work. As with each machine, the drone has its advantages and disadvantages. Of course, I'm worried about the fact that another person can take my package, but I think when the drones are really instead of postman's, this defect will be eliminated.
Unknown said…
I agree with disadvantages you listed, but I believe that most of the problems have got it's solution, it just have to be found.
I'm into drones technology, but I heard and as I know this technology is still developing, so those problem will be probably solved.
Potential problems may be some human mistake, for example if they program drone wrong and it will have got an information, that it should deliver a package to Ms. X, instead of Mr. P. Or maybe all of the information will be "put" there automatically?
Unknown said…

The most serious challenge to drones will come from driverless cars, not the energy-wasting trucking system we have now. What if a driverless car makes same-day delivery a much more economical model than an individually-delivered drone model? Maybe we can have a combination of driverless cars and small distance drones delivering everything in a span of maybe 6 hours? Maybe we won't have huge local warehouses but plenty of large moving trucks carrying boxes to locations close enough so that individual boxes can be delivered economically enough by drones with lower battery power

If driverless cars and delivery drones become a reality even in the next ten years, the world is probably going to be a very different place and I am waiting for it to happen.
Unknown said…
It's interesting idea to ban drones wearing any cameras. I agree with you.
Do you think it's possible to construct law in a proper way? I have an impression that law regulations are always an effect of something made in the past that's why it's impossible to construct it in the way that will prevent future ideas.
Unknown said…
Probably you agree it will be solved. On the other hand, people always will be willing to spy and hack. Institutions want to know a lot about their customers to earn more. Do you think it won't be a problem? Despite we know about it now.
Unknown said…
I haven't heard about such idea, but I think it's awesome! It would resolve battery problem much faster than inventing a new type of battery. What do you think, how long it takes to implement such solution?
Unknown said…
I can agree with you that this defect could be eliminated. Do you imagine how to do this? Not everybody must be an engineer.
Unknown said…
It is a problem even today and I'm sure it won't disaapear, but still companies will be looking for solutions. Probably there won't a perfect one, but they will be better
Yes, I agree with the disadvantages, but also I think that using drones is a good way to make many things easier. Using them to deliver letters or packages are just another great idea. Of course there is some problems connected to it, but the worst is in my opinion this matter of surveillance that you talked about. People feel uncomfortable with thought that something is flying over his house and can easily observe everything what is happening there. I think you are not oversensitive about it at all, but there is already a lot of ways to observe people constantly , we are not even aware of that. Everybody wants privacy, but these days we have less and less of it...
Unknown said…
Unfortunately you are right. We have less and less privacy that makes me worried, but I know I must handle it, because it won't change.
On the other hand, some of my friends don't care about losing privacy. The most important for them is to live easily. Privacy is not valuable part. So there are two groups:
1. worried about privacy
2. doesn't care about it.

Which group you belong to?
Unknown said…
Yeah, I had such situation. The parcel consisted of two parts. I got one of them and the second one was not mine. I found out when the postman went out. Of course, everything ended well, but it's the same example as you said.

I'm also into drones technology, but I just worried about surveillance. You don't?
Unknown said…
I'm also afraid that drones could become victims of the hackers, however, nowadays even cars or car's navigation system could be hacked. Maybe more valuable packages should be insured against theft, storm or thunders.
Unknown said…
Yes! I would say that this fear is "on time". There were some presentation here about spying and gartering data about people, and drones flying between houses, somehow invited there may be dangerous in this matter.
Michał Pycek said…
I have read about Amazon delivery and have watched the first video already in 2015 and it was supposed to be a big thing already in 2016. :-)
I think it is a matter of time for this to become a standard way of shipping products, but maybe in 10 years. I think the prototypes will be improved but in order to organise the whole transportation plan so they don't collide with each other, the time, resources and money need to be spend on it.
Unknown said…
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said…
Postman and suppliers usually have several packages in the car probalby drones would have one or two so would have to fly really a lot of them. I can't imagine so many drones flying in the sky. I think in cities it could cause more noise. Large amounts of drones could cause many collisions and this could be dangerous. Technology is sometimes unreliable. The question is, is it really a cheaper solution than people? The cost of servicing such devices is rather not small. I think drones are a good solution in places where the journey is hard for example in the mountains.
Wojtek Kania said…
I think the drone delivery is a future. I think drones will cross the borders of many dictatorship countries that banned goods from other countries. I think there is only one problem with drones - air crashes. We must order the law with drones, because the number of accidents is growing.
Unknown said…
I think drone delivery may be a great solution to many problems we are facing nowadays. Most of us are shopping via Internet and everyone know what problems appear.
Honestly I agree with most of disadvantages you've mentioned. For me an unemployment isn't a problem. Let's be honest - we have lots of jobs that may disappear soon. We have to deal with it.
For me the best way of using drones it delivering food. Then we would be sure that our meal is delivered as soon as possible, it's not cold and delivery man didn't have to face traffic
Maciej Główka said…
I think it is very good idea. I agree with disadvantages you wrote,however, it has some other drawbacks you didn't mention.
- Some drones models can be easily hacked, and I don't need to tell what this could mean for our packages.
- With increasing number of drones in our sky, air crashes can happen. Such drones should have really good algorithms to prevent such situations. Happily, Amazon has one of the best IT experts in the world, so I think this isn't big issue.

All in all, I think drone delivery will be normal thing in few years.
This is actually a very interesting topic, but fact is - drones are too "specific" for now to be able to handle basic tasks on daily basis. Sure, you can launch a drone, take some photos/videos, maybe deliver some small package right away, but the technology is too immature yet due to many technical issues, such as batteries, actual network range, drones capacity and so on.

It can be the future, and personally I believe in that, but definitely not today - the technology is still improving, but I still consider drones only being a prototype for general-purpose tasks today.
Unknown said…
I think that drones is not the best idea. I wouldn'y like to my laptop to be provided by a dron. The second important thing it's that I personally live on the 9th floor in Warsaw. I don't want to see the moments that this dron is near the windows. These items will no longer be safe. Someone can always damage the dron and take the letters.
Unknown said…
I think that drones are using sensors which are similar to camera for the spatial orientation, so you can't be sure that you wasn't recorded on this cam. But, from the other hand, nowadays sensors are not so powerfull to tell somebody what is going on in your bathroom, being outside the building(or bathroom)
I'm thinking of using drones to deliver goods is a very good idea , as they solve a lot of problems , from an environmental point of view and practical , but at the moment it's really hard as there are quite a lot of serious problems for example how to protect a drone from vandals ? But I think after perhaps 5 years the system will be introduced.
Unknown said…
Yeah, good point - 'specific' is the statement that touches whole problem. What kind of tasks do you mean?
Unknown said…
Good point! I haven't thought about people like you - living so high. On the other hand, do you think it is high for drones? In my opion, they could fly on the height of 30th floor. Perhaps even higher
Unknown said…
There could be situation when autonomous drones will fly according to the law. What's then?
I think that drone delivery is really cool but I can see some problems with them.
They can’t deliver packages to apartment buildings, the weather can also be problematic for them.
The drones can also crash because of some error and your package will be destroyed, or after delivering your package to your porch it can easily be stolen.
I thinks it’s cool but I don’t think that the drones will completely replace human postmen.
Unknown said…
This field is developing and I think it's only for good. As many times was told, our life is already observing by Google and other stuff and I don't think that a regular person will be granted with some personal observe drone from the government. Those people who needs to be watched already are watched, so no reasons to worry about it.
I'm super excited about drones delivery. It will improve our lives. Unfortunately, many postmen will lose their jobs, but it's an inevitable circumstance of progress. People need to come along with new technologies. Also, I don't think it will happens right away, so younger postmen still could change their field of work.
For such delivery should be some system like for airplanes. Drones shouldn't hit each other in the air and fall down on people's heads. I think it's one of the most important actions should be taken in this field.
Drones can be a very useful for delivering small packages, it will probably shorten time for delivery so for us consumers it's going to be very good. Looking from side of people working at deliveries, of course that some will lost their jobs, but I think it will not be many, mostly because drones can deliver only small and rather light packages, so for now drones will not make a big damage to deliver companies.
In the topic of surveillance I think it will not change anything at all. Agencies like CIA are spying on us all the time, in cities we've got cameras almost everywhere, our internet connections are monitored so I think it will not change our situation at all.
Technical problems with batteries will be for some time, but it's going to disappear we just need more time for engineers to figure that out. But bigger problem I see is coordinating these drones in air. If we imagine situation when thousands of drones are flying altogether we can't let them to do it freely so it's must be some regulations like in planes traffic.
I have heard about amazon drones delivery before. Maybe with small packages and specific conditions, like weather and range it will work. I agree with the disadvantages, and the invigilation problem is known and almost every electronic product is taking a part in it. Drones can be used in many ways, from making some breath taking footage to military use. Problem with the bateries can be solved in couple of ways, there can be created some stations where drones could land by them selves and charge, or maybe some solar bateries. The capacity problem, can be solved by building bigger drones :). But
seriously, I don't see it as a problem, some things just have their limits and specific usage. It is like with planes, they don't transport big loads of containers, the container ship does that.
The idea is very interesting. I agree with disadvantages, but I believe that in future a drone would be a better postman than a human postman. I am not happy with a real postman's jobs. They very often just leave a letter of advice in our postbox and don't even try to check out if somebody is in house. It is very frustrating if you wait for a postman in your house and after leaving you found a letter of afvice in box with comment: "nobody was in home". I believe that digital postmen is a good idea. However, I don't have much experience in drones.
Unknown said…
http://edition.cnn.com/2013/12/02/tech/social-media/twitter-jokes-amazon-drones/ - some are funny:)

It is really interesting, how are they going to avoid the collisions? ok, for the first time, there won't be lot of drones, but then will it will become popular, people will have to create the drone traffic rules, and they will keep flying above our heads all the time, right?

I like the innovations, but until I will found out all the details, I prefer DHL:)
First - For me courier job is not an easy one and won't be changed by machine soon. It would be easier if on every block of flat they could install some bigger post boxes (like Paczkomat) when you could just take your package at any time without third person/machine assist - that would win everything for me.

Surveillance problem - For me it is a really bad idea. Currently ATM's are being stolen just to get some money. Don't want to think what can happen to small drones... but nothing good. Range is to short to use it more efficiently - no good vision of it at all.

Drones are currently used for paroling country borders, air pollution monitoring and company protection. I think that these are their main field of operation and we have to focus on them.
KamilG said…
This comment has been removed by the author.
KamilG said…
Drones are a good solution for fast and cheap delivery, but what about consequences arising from this convenience?
It still isn't known... In my opinion, if it would be possible to throw dron in the clouds technically, then new law should come into force. These acts would be possible security against threats such as monitoring with cameras mounted on drone, incorrect data collection, loss of control over drones and much more.
About technical problems... Problem with batery can be solved by placing solar panels on dron's casing. It won't be effective in 100%, but help to keep the energy for longer time.
Vyvyan said…
What do you think about the drone delivery?
I think I don't trust such kind of delivery. I would be afraid all the time that my package would be lost.
Do you agree with its disadvantages? Do you see the surveillance problem?
I totally agree with disadvantages.
Can you give some other examples of bad/good way of using drones?
Well, I'm looking on drones as a kind of toy. It's fun to use but can be also dangerous if it is in bad hands.
Do you know any technical problems with drones usage and the ways of resolving it? Such as too weak batteries, capacity limit etc.?
I don't know much about drones. So I can't say anything about that.
Magdalena Popek said…
The very first thing I thought about while reading this article is packages being stolen.
The second thing is the weather. It probably won't deliver during thunderstorm or heavy wind, and the weather can change quite quickly.
I basically don't like the idea. You can have your package delivered in 24h, is it really that long? And a drone can't deliver the package to your house, as postman does. In my opinion it is unnecessary invention.
Adam Paśniczek said…
I don't think that was a good idea. There is no doubt that technology is developing right in front of our eyes. We will not stop this. The question is, is this really neeed? It is hard to me to imagine a dron delivering my parcel. It is not that i am not believing that is possible but is this useful? Sometimes new solutions are not helpful. Like a self-service store ( same company ) where you can buy things without cashiers. Good idea but not good in practice.
Unknown said…
I think we are far away from it, yet. Surveillance problem is a no go for me so I'll pass.
Unknown said…
Drone delivery sounds like a fine idea, it's just that for us here in Poland, they will likely remain pure science fiction for a loooong while. First of all, I can't imagine how it would work in flats, especially in places where... let's say public trust is not as high as it could be? I wouldn't want my neighbors to pick up my mail.

I'm not bothered by the work automatization problem - while some people may loose jobs, more jobs are created for maintenance, manufacturing and operating the drones. Surveillance doesn't seem like a big problem for me too, it's already happening and airborne drones would be the least effective way of doing it anyway.
Unknown said…
It depends. Drons is good idea but not in all situation. For exmaple Drons can be good to smuggle drugs to other country without control but also it can be better way to get faster your products then it can go in normal way by postman. Dorns it would be also safer then postman because none can get this box with our product and steel it.
Ihor Ahnianikov said…
I think that it's an awesome idea and it will be a revolution in logistics, but using drones should be regulated anyway - drones should have designated paths, weight limits, security techniques etc. because if a drone falls on someone's head it will not be fun. Currently there're a few regulations because drones are used for hobbies and not in the industrial scale.
Bartosz Łyżwa said…
I've heard about drone delivery few times and I've seen an Amazon movie that was promoting this kind of delivery. I can't agree that many employees will loose their jobs because it's only one of improvements and this is not the case that drivers will be useless. I'm not afraid of surveillance problem.
Unknown said…
The idea is quite good but as I know drones couldn't fly over people's head so it will be a problem to use it as digital postmen.

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