Every
recession in the US have been “predicted” by the yield curve. What is it, and
how it works?
Watch the
video below to find out!
1. Do you think that we are on the
verge on another recession?
2. Do you think that the yield curve
actually predicts anything or is it a pure coincidence?
3. Have you ever bought any type of
bond?
Comments
2. I think that factors which make the yield curve inverted have impact on the arrival of recession. So, it is not a coincidence, but the line is rather an illustration of the condition of the economy. If it doesn’t work 100% times, that’s because there are a lot of different factors which might not necessarily influence the shape of the line but change a lot in economy.
3. No, I haven’t. I’ve been always afraid of investing in the stock market, because it is risky. On the other hand, maybe it is a good moment to get interested in the stock market, since money are going to lose its value anyway…
2. There are so many factors that it would be strange if one chart could predict a recession. But if it worked in the past then for sure it is something that we could take into consideration and pay attention to it as some kind of a roadsign.
3. No I haven't, but considering low percentages on deposits and saving accounts I'm thinking of a possibility to put some of my savings into some bond. Maybe I will try it someday.
2.It it to complex to be defined just by the curve. It can speculate some things but we will never be sure if it means another recession.
3.No i haven't and I hope i never will. Every time I try to take money from some others sources.
1. As I know there haven't been any serious recesion in last few years and as it "appears" every couple of years, probably we are on the verge of another one.
2. It seems like there is some connection between yield curve and recession and it can be used to predict economical changes. As we can see in the video this trend was present for many years in the past, so probably it's not just a coincided but high correlation.
3. No, I haven't. As I said before I'm not really into economics and stock market, so I will probably only lose my money.
2. This is one of many indicators describing reality. Certainly it is somehow related to the recession but this should not be a reason to panic.
3. I think buying bonds makes sense with more resources available to invest. In my case it would not make sense because the profit would be low and i have to wait long.
2. There are no coincidences. As we can learn from the past these predictions were right almost every time. I think that yield curve is just warning us that something may happen. We can never be 100% sure, but we should absolutely take it into consideration.
3. No I haven’t. I don’t know much about investing but I’m sure that I don’t entrust my money to goverment.
2. I think it is a pure coincidence, we can never predict the economy, and a recession is not something caused by such random yield curve, recessions were caused by different reasons.
3. No, for me, there is no difference between buying bonds and gambling.
2. Definitely yes. Since this curve is successfully predicted. Another question is when it was foreseen, and you should trust the latest data, which are based on the current situation. Since changes can be taken aback at any time. This is the 21st century.
3. No. So far this experience has not happened in my life. But I talked with people who did it. Here you need to be either lucky or very competent to predict what changes will happen in the stock market.
2. It is definitely not a coincidence. The yield curve is correlated with the bond market, which reflects the situation on market in general. We should also take into consideration that the curve line was visualized based on the USA market which generally is more stable and liquid than middle Europe markets (like GPW). Considering that imbalance in western markets might affect our economic, maybe we should invest in growing markets?
3. No, I haven’t yet, mainly because the average return rate is not high enough comparing to the potential risk. The situation on the Polish market is not stable these days, and therefore a lot of not financially liquid companies are emitting bonds. On the other hand, the treasury bonds are not so trustworthy as well, considering insane activities of the current government and very high state debt. There were at least a few situations in Europe when countries stayed on the edge of bankruptcy and governments have decided to amortize their liabilities related with treasury bonds.
Before watching the video, I did not even think about it, but now this analysis of the "yield curve" looks logical enough for me. But economists around the world have had a lot of time to analyse this situation and I hope that they worked out measures to prevent it. Although, remembering the video with the ants...
2. Do you think that the yield curve actually predicts anything or is it a pure coincidence?
My opinion about this I expressed above. However, I would be extremely interested to know what artificial intelligence "thinks" about it. I've seen a lot of examples, when AI has found really incredible solutions noticing very non-obvious for humans details.
3. Have you ever bought any type of bond?
No. In my opinion, there are more stable investment options.
No, I do not own any bonds. However, I am aware of what is happening in the world (for example in Venezuela) and I try to divide my savings into different currencies.
I believe it will happen propably later then sooner but we should prepare in advance or do something to slow this process. Recession will come and go as it's inevitable.
2. Do you think that the yield curve actually predicts anything or is it a pure coincidence?
The yield curve is base on real facts and data alone it's predicts nothing it is only a sign what economic moods are out in the country and if people are not feeling safe they are becoming a real sign to be aware of.
3. Have you ever bought any type of bond?
No, I once played on stock exchange but lack intrestest in bonds with government.
2. I think that the yield curve may be able to predict the upcoming crisis to some extent, although it should be taken with a pinch of salt. After all, it's not just the yield curve that needs to be analyzed, but all other facts and measures that may indicate a recession. Let's leave it to professionals and experts in the subject, let's not jump to conclusions ourselves.
3. As I have already mentioned, I find myself bad in economics and bonds are taboo for me. I have never invested in any bonds, and I'll probably never do it. I don't mind getting acquainted with the topic though. And then, who knows...?
2. It's Definitely not a coincidence, there is a certain relation between the yield curve and recession, but the question is how big of a factor is this relation? It may take some part in the process, but maybe there are other things that we don't see and have way bigger role in the recession.
3. I haven't, although I find stock market very interesting and tempting. It's a game at high risk. However I lack proper education in the subject and I've heard many stories of people losing huge money on the stock market, so I think I'd rather not participate in this game.
2. According to statistics presented in the video, yield curve does not always predict recession but it surely is a sign you should not neglect.
3. No, I haven't and I can't see myself doing it in any possible future.
2. It is obvious that the income curve is an important factor. This is not the only factor to consider, but it cannot be ignored.
3. No, I haven't. I don't plan to buy any bonds. It is more likely that I will invest in shares.
2. Historically an yield curve has been perceived as an indicator of recession. Currently the yield curve is not enough to predict futhure becuase there is a lot of indocator that influence on economy.
3. No, I have never bought in the stock market becuase on my opinion it is not only risky but also unpaid. I'm addition I don't appreciate this way of making money, because it is easy to lost money Personally I think that IT od better to invest in property and gold ore.
1. Through recent history there were good times and bad times. so i think a recesion it is posibble in near future.
2. I think yield curve is a useful tool in establishing when a recession might happen, but it shouldn't be taken too literally. I am no expert in economics but i think what really should be analysed are the factors that may influence the way economics behave. However it is difficult for me to have a say in the matter as i know very little about.
3. As of today I haven't bought any bond, but i don't reject the possibility.
So, answering your questions:
1. If you believe scientists and statistics, it seems to me that a recession in our country in the coming years (maybe 4-7) may occur. And this does not bode well for our country, we can fall into debts and financial deficiencies.
2. It is very hard question to answet. I think that the yield curve can actually predicts anything or can't. Something it could me just a pure coincidence. The situation changes dramatically from year to year, month to month, and even day by day. I think that we shouldn't believe in statistics and curves, but in the real situation in the country.
3. No I have never bought any type of bond?. Why? Because for me it's a little risky, and I don't have the knowledge or experience. For now, I prefer safer investment options, e.g. deposits or real estate. But in the future who knows? Maybe I am tempted to buy bonds?
2. Anything? :) "Yield curve" has predicted every US recession over the last 50 years. So it might be predicting another one, but nothing more.
3. No, I haven't yet. Business economics and the stock market are out of my knowledge, so I will only lose on it for now.
2. I don't think that based on one thing, we are able to predict the rherence. Yes, there are many things unchanging in our country. However, this consists of too many, often even completely unpredictable components to be able to make such a judgment.
3. No , never and I don't want.
2. Yes, I think that this yeld curve can predict future situation based on a historical factor.
3. I haven't bought any bond and I hope i never will.
Yield Curve was probably developed by someone wise, so it certainly means something there. If such a pattern was repeated in the past and heralded the recession, it certainly can not be ignored.
I never bought a bond, I used to think about it, but due to lack of economic knowledge I gave up the idea.
2 I think there is a connection between the yield curve and the recession. However, I am not convinced that the recession depends only on mathematical calculations. Economics is complicated and difficult to predict.
3 I have never bought any type of bond. As I mentioned, economics is not my strong point, that's why I never thought about investing money in this Way.
Frankly, I think that the yield curve is just one of many signals that something bad is about to happen in the world economy.
I have never bought any type of bond and I bet I never will. Investing in bonds is less risky than investing in stocks, although it's possible to earn more than 10 % in stocks while bond’s interest rate is fixed.
2) I can't say for sure, I've never heard about yield curve before. I never knew there was a yield curve. For me it is very difficult to answer this question, but based on what is told in the video - I think that the yield curve can predict recessions based on specific data.
3) I never bought bonds. Firstly, I think I don't need it. And there are other things I can invest in. Secondly, I do not understand the economy, I do not know the concepts and terminology, so I think that I should not do this. Maybe someday, the economy will be interesting to me and I will even try to buy bonds. But not now.
2. Yield curve is based on real data and has predicted a few economic downturns. We might keep an eye on it, but we shouldn't relay on such predictions.
3. No, I've never bought any type of bond
I am not an expert so I can't say. I think we might be, for a long time economy was doing good so I think it is a natural thing that soon we will have another recession.
2. Do you think that the yield curve actually predicts anything or is it a pure coincidence?
From what I understood from the video this curve shows what investors think. However, I don't understand economy well enough to say whether it means that the recession is already happening or that because investors are scared of recession they invest less and that causes a recession. Both of these options might not be true because as I said I am quite clueless when it comes to this topic.
3. Have you ever bought any type of bond?
No I haven't bought any type of bond yet. Maybe in the future I will.
I think it's very possible.
2. Do you think that the yield curve actually predicts anything or is it a pure coincidence?
I believe there is some science behind that curve. Someone who definitely have bigger knowledge in economy created it for some purpose.
It there was a couple of documented examples before it's highly probable that the first sign of yield curve might mean upcoming recession .
3. Have you ever bought any type of bond?
I never consider it due to significantly lacking knowledge in the subject.
2. I think that the yield curve actually predicts everything. All of the recessions which had taken place in the past showed us the yield curve was right and there are no coincidences.
3. No, I haven’t had an opportunity yet. Maybe one day I will buy some kind of bond, who knows..
2. Considering that this is a phenomenon encountered almost before every recession, it can be assumed that this is the first sign before it begins.
3. I've never bought any type of bond.
2. It seems to me that every field is based on noticed repetitions, schemes. Thanks to this, you can draw conclusions and respond appropriately. So that why I think that the yield curve actually predicts something.
3. No, I haven’t and I’m not planning in the near future.
2. In stock charts analysis it's just a normal thing. Market traders found repeatable patterns in every part of a stock chart. But it's not all about plots and numbers, it's more about human psychology.
3. No, I haven't. I more involved into the cryptocurrency market (it's in some way similar). But I won't recommend it to anyone. It's a risky investment, and you will need strict control of emotions to not lose your mind.
3) no, I haven't. Although , I have got good shot with penny stocks.
2. I definitely think it is related. It looks a bit like a butterfly effect.
3. Once I was only interested in currency trading.
2. I think there is no coincidence, but everything can change in a matter of days. This shouldn't be underestimated for sure
3. I haven't. I'm not into ecenomics so it's not for me. For now. Maybe someday I will understand how it works and make money of it
I don’t think it’s a pure coincidence I think that using the yield curve might be helpful in prevention of another recession but I would say it’s just one of the tools that are necessary to predict something like that.
No, I have never bought any type of bond.
2. Yield curve is, i think, based on economy and the economy is very mathematical. So i think that we can with more or less precision predict what will happen based on the yield curve. It shows some trend and in the past it warns us before the recesions have accured.
3. No i have never bought any type of bond.
2. As i said above i dont believe in coincidences and on the other hand it's really unlikly that Yield made big mistake in their mathematics.
3. No i haven't and I hope i never will.
2. As the graph in the end of the video did show its prediction is quite accurate. However, if it would be the coincidence then maybe this could be another way around, as the line may suddenly dissappear and everythings goes well.
3. No, I've never bought any kind of bonds. We are students and most likely most of us couldn't even afford them.
2. Yield curve doesn't predict anything, it's just a bad omen which heralds recession. It isn't always right that it will come soon through, as sometimes there is still some time till it will come (probably in few years and maybe there is slight chance to fight it), but because people are aware of above they simply bring it to us with their reaction. There is probably little to no sense in fighting it through.
3. No and I probably won't. Bonds can bring a lot of profit, but if you know how they work and I don't.
2. I think yield curve can predict part of the market. In my opinion, there is a division on the market. Mentioned earlier yield curve applies only to the larger part ~80% and the other can be different.
3. No I don't buy any type of bond, because I'm not interested in this topic. I just don't want to be on pins and needles every day and all the time watching market when something decreases or grows back.
It seems to me that the income curve actually predicts different fluctuations in the economy. But we also know that there is no tool or method that could predict everything effectively.
But to answer your question I think that the income curve (engla curve) actually predicts
Unfortunately not, but I would like to go deeper into this because it is quite an interesting topic of investment
1. I am not sure where we are in the moment. But I can say it will be a recession soon, because the socialism in Poland these days is gaining popularity. We are giving a lot of money to people who really do not needs it that much.
2. It can actually predicts something but not all. The economy is mentioned with politics. These times we cannot predict everything. One day it is a peace and another U.S. uses their drones in Iraq.
3. No I havent, I am not feeling sure about my knowledge about it. It is really poor, maybe one day this will change. Moreover I do not have a lot of money to invest it.