There
were some strikes at the time of each election because of suspicion of falsifying
the results. Unfortunately, walkouts never succeeded but Łukaszenka punished
these acts really cruelly. This year nothing has changed and the sad story
happened again. Examinations, arrests and the lack of free media are just a few
examples of undemocratic behaviour due to the tension related to the elections.
Siarhiej Cichanouski, who is a famous YouTuber, declared his candidacy in the
presidential elections. A few days later he was arrested and his wife, Swietłana
Cichanouska, decided to replace him in the elections.
Source: https://www.pap.pl/aktualnosci/news%2C706899%2Ccichanouska-na-bialorusi-nikt-nie-wybaczy-lukaszence-tego-co-zrobil.html
She gained trust of the society really fast and the majority of people were ready to vote for her. Belarusians felt that freedom was so close. But unfortunately, the results of voting were exactly the same as before. Łukaszenka won with crushing advantage.
Official results of
presidential election in Belarus on August 9, 2020
Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1147363/belarus-presidential-election-results/
When
the media announced the results, moods of society who believed in the possibility
of freedom changed. Belarusians were trying to fight for free election with walkouts. The Government answered with
violence by ordering the police to start arresting and torturing demonstrators.
Media hasn’t been safe anymore. Łukaszenko forbade spreading the information about
the situation in Belarus to the world. Cichanowska was forced to escape from
the country because of the risk of becoming a prisoner.
Poland
and Lithuania announced that they will not accept Łukaszenko as President.
Other European Union countries supported this decision. Only Russia accepted
this solution. By the end of September, Łukaszenko declared himself the President
of Belarus. Walkouts are still remaining. More and more people have started to believe in free Belarus. Even if society doesn’t
have guns, they protest with flowers.
Questions:
1.
Do you think that there are going to be
free election in Belarus?
2.
Do you think that Swietłana has a chance
to become a president?
3.
What would happen with Łukaszenko if society
won?
4.
If Łukaszenko loses, will Belarus have a
chance to become a part of UE? Or maybe this country would stay under control
and influence of Russia?
Sources:
·
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1147363/belarus-presidential-election-results/
·
https://bezprawnik.pl/bialorus-wybory-prezydenckie-2020/
·
https://ine.org.pl/wybory-prezydenckie-na-bialorusi-2020/
·
https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wybory_prezydenckie_na_Bia%C5%82orusi_w_2020_roku
·
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Comments
2. I do. Looking at all the protest that has already been going on for 3 months non-stop, I can't believe that Lukashenko will stay for another term. Also, Svetlana has the support from leaders of other UE countries and from the people.
3. Well, hard to say. Maybe he will have to leave the country, maybe not. People draw a lot of parallels between him and different politics that we're in kind of the same situations. Most of them had to hide.
4. Politics is a game. For Belarus Russia for a long time was a sort of support. But I think with a new president we might change the direction quite a bit(well at least that's what I would love to see). And still, political changes can't happen overnight. First of all, after Lukashenko is gone, new free elections will need to happen. And after that, we might be doing some guess-work on the new direction.
It seems that any elections without Lukashenka have all the chances to be considered as free.
Svietlana has said several times she is not planning to rule as president. She plays a transitional role. She represents an alternative, which has never existed in Belarus, because of the political repressions. People were killed, tortured, kidnapped, bulldozed, kicked out for the whole time.
I think it makes more sense to talk about WHEN society will win. Honestly, I don’t know. He has now a little range of choices where he can hide. It’s pretty obvious Lukashenka is afraid to get shot. He is probably will go to Russia as Poroshenko did.
Fourth question is a bit offensive and tactless. Belarusians are now busy fighting for freedom from the dictator. Almost every day people can get shot with rubber bullets on the streets. Police can break your arms or legs regardless how old are you and what you were doing. In Belarus you don’t need to do something illegal to get arrested because laws there are not functioning now. The government did not think about its people, who were not allowed to enter their own home country. The government abandoned them. Belarusians did not choose whether to be under Russian pressure or not. They did not have a right to choose. Restoring basic human rights in Belarus is the main goal of the nation now.
In my opinion, as long as Alexander Lukashenka is alive, there is no chance of changing the situation in Belarus. So I believe that there will be no free elections in Belarus in the coming years as the dictator has a lot of power. Additionally, there is not much opposition power there.
2. Do you think that Swietłana has a chance to become a president?
As I wrote above, I believe that nothing will change in Belarus. Unfortunately, Svetlana will not be president. Even if Lukashenka escapes, the country will be destabilized, just like Ukraine at one time. Various groups - the military, the police, the wealthy - will fight for power.
3. What would happen with Łukaszenko if society won?
In my opinion, Alexander Lukashenka would have fled the country if the opposition had won. I believe that he would never, and will not, be punished for his sins.
4. If Łukaszenko loses, will Belarus have a chance to become a part of UE? Or maybe this country would stay under control and influence of Russia?
Hard to say. I believe that Belarus remains more independent than we think. It is Lukashenka's defeat that may push Belarus towards Russia. Let's see what is happening in Ukraine. After the fall of Yanukovych, the country was supposed to join the EU, but remained destabilized for a long time. Nobody can say now whether Ukraine is a sphere of influence of the EU or Russia.
I can`t say exactly, because the ex-government is not going to make concessions and negotiate. But I would really like to see fair and free elections held there soon. I am not a Belarussian, but as I know, people have been peacefully protesting there for about three months, despite the fear of being forcibly detained and beaten. They deserve honesty and fairness.
2.Do you think that Swietłana has a chance to become a president?
As far as I have heard from various news sources, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya was not going to become a president. She put up her candidacy because other Lukashenko`s opponents, including her husband, were excluded from the list for strange reasons. So Sviatlana promised to organise fair elections with all candidates if the people would choose her.
3.What would happen with Łukaszenko if society won?
In this question I agree with previous students, that probably he will hide in Russia like ex-president of Ukraine Yanukovych. And certainly, he will not be responsible for crimes.
4.If Łukaszenko loses, will Belarus have a chance to become a part of UE? Or maybe this country would stay under control and influence of Russia?
Honestly, I don`t know if Belarus needs to be a part of the European Union or is it reasonable in the nearest future. This country actually has strong trade and economic relations with Russia.
1. I hope that there will be free elections in Bilorus, because the citizens deserve it. Unfortunately, Lukashenka has committed so many crimes, so he is very afraid of losing power.
2. I think there is no way for Lukashenka to stay president. He has no support from people and EU countries. He is only supported by the military and police and Russia won’t support him all the time, because protests in Bialorus also disturb russian citizens and also can cause protests in Russia.
3. I don't know. I think he will run away to Russia similarly to Viktor Yanukovich. I think that now he just pulled this moment.
4. I don’t really know... Because Russia supports Lukashenka, citizens will be against cooperation with this country. In addition, every country must have certain conditions to join the European Union
1. Gosh, I hope so. My sister-in-law is Belarusian and gosh … its heartbreaking to listen to the stories of what the people are going through in their country to fight for freedom. Someday there will be free election, but honestly, I do not see a path for it to happen soon
2. Not really. I see that there is an immense pressure from the society, but even when they win, I am not sure they will be unanimous enough to choose her as their president.
3. If it was up to the society, he would face criminal charges and probably spend the rest of his life in prison. However, I think that he has resources to get away I such a case and live a comfortable life somewhere else.
4. I have no idea. EU has standards that all the candidate countries have to live up to. Fulfilling them will take them a few years, regardless of who will be in charge of the country.
Svietlana isn’t going to be a president, she stated that many times. She’s fighting for those defenseless and without any chance of getting help. As far as I know, it was her husband who first stood up to Lukashenko and he was the main oppositionist, but he got imprisoned. Then she took the torch and she started to inspire people, started in the elections just to give people a choice, to free them from the dictator.
I think if the society gets their way, Lukashenko is going to flee from Belarus. But I don’t know if he’ll be accepted anywhere, as Russia and Putin seem to be fed up with him and well, after being banished from his own country, he won’t have any value for Russia. I don’t think he’ll get assassinated or anything, but he’ll be sentenced to life in hiding and way more humble life that he’s living now.
And to sum this up, I really hope they will at least get closer to Europe than they are now. But I agree with Leya, as obviously she has more knowledge on the subject, that they first need to sort things out inside the country. I don’t think they’ll join EU fast, but I think the relations will get much better and Belarus will finally have more access to western way of living and ruling a country. One way or another, I just hope that they will build a country they can be happy in.
1. I feel sorry for you and I'm full of hope it'll be better!
2. Svietlana has got the biggest chance to resist Lukaszenko. If she wins, it'll be a new election? Or maybe she'll be a president?
4. What kind of "support" was Russia for Belarus?
1. Do you think that Lukaszenko would accept his failure?
2. Your observation that protests in Belarus could make protests in Russia is really interesting. Do you think that maybe XXI century is the right time to end with the dictatorship?
1. You said that you doubt in free election in Belarus in the near future. So what in your opinion happens soon? People resign from protests (and freedom) and come back to "normal life"?
I agree that Svietlana decided to take part in the election under pressure of society and to defend her husband. But if Lukaszenko loose, maybe the society will still pressure for her? She showed that she is very loyal to Belarus. Or maybe her husband will gain a support in the forward election because of her engagement?
I don't think she will allow people to force her into anything. I'd rather say her husband is going to come back to the front seat and will probably start in first free elections after Lukashenko is gone. But I think it's unlikely that she'll become a president or some major politician.
I do not know all the nuances and details of the political situation in Belarus, but I have heard a lot about protests on an unprecedented scale. Acts of aggression against citizens and an attempt to provide order by force seem to me to be the last resort for the rulers.
Running as a candidate in the presidential election with the certainty that the result will be a lie must be a terrible experience. Yet just trying to fight back is an amazing act of activism.
Following similar situations in the world, I would guess he would have fled to Russia. Venezuela's example has shown many times how deposed politicians behave. They disappeared from the country in a few hours with their families.
My fear is that the strings that Putin pulls go so far that it would be an incredibly difficult process. However, I do not think it is impossible. Fingers crossed!
1. Unfortunately, I am afraid that the situation in Belarus may not change soon. Even if Alexander Lukashenka dies, another one may come. Controlling this situation requires a real revolution. Revolutions are never easy and require enormous effort and, above all, sacrifice.
2. I don't really know. In the present circumstances, I'm afraid not. But in a slightly different reality, I think she could be a good leader. I wish Belarusians a better future and a great leader.
3. I think such a person has the appropriate connections. Most likely he would hide somewhere and avoid responsibility. But the memory of him and his bad notoriety will last a long time.
4. I hope they will join the EU and the Balerusians will have the opportunity to build a better future. This will not happen under Russia's wing.
1. Such an interesting concept! Don't you believe that in case of Lukashenko's death, Belarus accepts another dictator? It seems an easier way to gain freedom in new election and new candidates than in fighting with multi annual torturer.
It seems to me that he is not the only one who rules Belarus. I suspect, although I may be wrong, that a group of people who care about maintaining power in Belarus may be behind it. In such a scenario, Belarusians could not do much.
2. I don't recommend any of my Belarusian friend to vote for this Svetlana when new election takes place. C'mon, she wanted to ask Putin to help you guys xD.
3. He will go to Yanukovich to Rostov-Na-Donu. Or maybe he will be executed by revolutionists. It's a shame, but execution is not very probable...
4. After Belarus get's true independence the country will have a chance to became a part of EU. It is actually a long process to become a state that satisfies EU requirements. What I can guess about EU is that it probably doesn't need poor countries like Ukraine and Belarus, especially after Brexit. The other problem of course is there is an evil gnome in the neighboring country that want's to reinstate USSR will probably make everything not to let our countries to go to EU.
1. The revolution which is happening right now cause hundreds of arrested or even murdered. What do you mean saying 'more radical steps'?
I fully support all the protesters and it's really heartbreaking to see how they're being treated. I wish nothing but the best to our Belarusian friends, but I'm afraid that the chances of getting free, democratic election, as long as Lukaszenko is alive are close to zero. I think tha only chance of living in a free country is to ally with European Union. Once again, it's hardly possible, knowing how much influence Russia has on Belarus.
2. Do you think that Swietłana has a chance to become a president?
From what I've heard, she never really wanted to become one. As far as I remember, she decided to put up her candidacy only to "represent" other candidates, which got excluded from the election.
3. Would happen with Łukaszenko if society won?
He doesn't look like a kind of person who would surreder and admit he has lost. He would probably run away from the country without a single word to let people forget he ever existed.
4. If Łukaszenko loses, will Belarus have a chance to become a part of UE? Or maybe this country would stay under control and influence of Russia?
In my opinion, even if Lukaszenko loses, Belarus will probably still be under Russias control. It would take years and years for Belarus to meet the EU standards.
Belarusians have only recently understood that they are able to pressure someone or demand something as a nation. Svietlana's contribution in Belarusian freedom is big enough, people will not enforce her to rule the country if she doesn't want to.
Maybe the next election will be different, but who knows. Not only internal conflicts but the impact of western countries and Russia makes it harder to predict. It's really hard to say.
2.
For sure, but for me Belarus needs a really strong candidate, that is not afraid of any consequences. Maybe in the next election we will se some new ones, but the shifts like that need a lot of time.
3.
Probably he would want to contest the result of the election.
4.
I think the bonds created in the USSR times are hard to loose and probably without stronger reaction from the society it won't be that easy.
I highely doubt that the situation will change drastically in the foresable future.
Belarus has very close ties to Russia which supports Lukaszenko and isn't holding free elections itself, so it would require some massive revolution
2.
As answered above I don't think that's the case.
3.
He would probably flee to Russia where he would seek asylum. If that weren't the case
I can see the society judging him and throwing him in jail.
4.
I think that Belarusians would like to be in the EU as they acknowledge it with
higher economic growth and overall prosperity. So I do believe that if the leader wasn't pro-Russia, Belarus would try to join the EU, just as Ukraine is.
I would like it to be like that, but I don't see any chance. Lukaszenko will quell all revolts by force. The people will be afraid about his jobs and healthy. Strikes will be end in close feature. Ukraine isn't a rich country and the vision of losing their job and intimidation with a prison may be decisive.
2. Do you think that Swietłana has a chance to become a president?
I support her a lot but I don't think it's possible. It should be something changed in involvement other countries in this case. The big problem is support Lukasenko from Russia that is one of the most influential country in the world.
3. What would happen with Łukaszenko if society won?
Lukaszenko will left Bialorus government forever. However, he will never be a free man because society won't forget it and he will be persecuted.
4. If Łukaszenko loses, will Belarus have a chance to become a part of UE? Or maybe this country would stay under control and influence of Russia?
I think Putin would like to have subordinate country like Bialorus so if Putin want Bialorus Putin will get Bialorus ;) Seriously so it's hard to say but I guess it's possible to become a part of UE in the future. For that to happen, huge changes must take place in this country.
As far as I know, and I don't know much about this issue, the protests aren't alive as they were weeks ago. I hope that it isn't true and that more liberal and democratic government would take over the power. Fingers crossed!
Do you think that Swietłana has a chance to become a president?
Though one. She probably has some chance, but we have to keep in mind that she wasn't an official candidate from the first place, she is a wife of a candidate that was trying to win the election. Unfortunately, he has been captured and imprisoned.
What would happen with Łukaszenko if society won?
I hope that he would be treated with respect and has a reliable process that would convict of his crimes.
If Łukaszenko loses, will Belarus have a chance to become a part of UE? Or maybe this country would stay under the control and influence of Russia?
It depends, who has an interest in having control over Belarus and what people in Belarus desire. If the new government would be democratic and liberal, people would intuitively lean towards the EU more than Russia
About Swietlana, it depends if Lukaszenko gets overthrown. If so, I strongly believe that she will be elected president. She's not only a good candidate, but after last election and protests, she's a symbol of fight for freedom.
If the society would've won, I think Lukaszenko's fate could be one of two. He could split with the money and live on some remote islands or he would've been captured and send to prison. Although, I think that prison way isn't too likely to happen as Russia's influence is still strong in that region.
Anserw to last quiestion is pretty complex. If finally president will be an opposition candidate, then there will be talks of joining UE for sure, I think even Russia's influence wouldn't be enough to stop that. There's of course also a possibility of an pro-russia candidate taking over. In that case, there might be even harder repressions of an opposition and citizens.
Definitely, one day there will be a free election. But the right question is when it will be - before Lukashenko's death or no. Also, there is an opportunity that he will give his throne to his son, and so on. We have enough examples of such behaviour in some Asian countries, for example. Dictatorship even after massive protests isn't something rare.
Do you think that Swietlana has a chance to become a president?
Maybe she just shouldn't. I have heard that opposition agreed to unite around her cause she promised to provide a really free election with all prisoned candidates and so on, right after becoming a president. But at this moment it doesn't seem like a plan that will work, so it's better to find a more suitable candidate.
What would happen with Lukaszenko if society won?
Marathon? He probably will run to Russia. But he will fight long until his failure is 100%, so don't be too optimistic.
If Lukaszenko loses, will Belarus have a chance to become a part of UE? Or maybe this country would stay under the control and influence of Russia?
Should it? Yeah, politics is cool, but the prosperity of the country is more about economics. UE can say: "Go here, everything will be cool", but in fact, it's a hard thing to integrate markets. So the decision to move from the Russian sphere to UE right now and as fast as possible may end as the crisis.
I think there will be free election in the future, but first the current president needs to die from old age or disease. Maybe coronavirus can help with that? When there will be no Lukaszenka there exist possibility that next president will be elected according to law.
2. Do you think that Swietłana has a chance to become a president?
If she outlives the leader of Belarus than yes, but for now not really. I wish her the best, but wishful thinking doesn’t bring necessary change.
3. What would happen with Łukaszenko if society won?
Hopefully Belarus society would go with Romania path dealing with their leader, not the polish one. Dictators needs to face consequences of their actions. In reality Lukaszenko would probably leave the country to Russia just like Janukowycz did.
4. If Łukaszenko loses, will Belarus have a chance to become a part of UE? Or maybe this country would stay under control and influence of Russia?
I have read that many young people are for joining UE, but first old population needs to die out. Than there are strict rules for joining the union. They need to be able to change their system to satisfy those rules. It would take a lot of time.
1. Lukaszenko's rule resembles tyrany. We can never be 100% sure that there will be free election in Belarus. Recent actions however performed by the Belarussian government, e. g. setting imprisoned protesters free, show that their strenght and self confidence is shrinking.
2. In my opinon, as the frontline of, Belarussian resistance against government, Swietlana has a significant chance of becoming new, democratic president of Belarus.
However, in an actual event of fair election , I think there is a chance that she would be replaced by some other representative.
3. He propably would have to flee from Belarus.
4. I believe that Belarus would not meet requirements to be become UE member, I think that because of its history and geographical aspects it still could face danger to its democracy from Russia's side. Nevertheless I wouldn't disqualify Belarus as UE member candidate in the future.
I think it is inevitable. Question is when will it happen.
2. Do you think that Swietłana has a chance to become a president?
On the one hand she is a symbol of change and a hero, but on the other hand she is not a politician, she is just ordinary woman who was brave enough to risk everything for her country. I'm afraid that if she became president, she would not be that good at leading a whole country. IIRC she even said that her goal is free elections in Belarus, not becoming the president. In Poland we had similar case: Lech Wałęsa is a hero and did great job as a leader of opposition during PRL, but he turned out to be an awful politician.
3. What would happen with Łukaszenko if society won?
He would run away from the country or face trial.
4. If Łukaszenko loses, will Belarus have a chance to become a part of UE? Or maybe this country would stay under control and influence of Russia?
I think that even if Belarus were to join the EU, it would only be possible in the distant future. First of all, the requirements would be hard to fulfill for Belarus. Secondly, I think that the main goal of the EU should now be to strengthen integration between the current member states and to solve the problem of countries such as Poland and Hungary which don't want to adapt to EU standards. The accession of new countries to the EU would now only be a problem.
I dont know as much the situation in belarus but it seems like its totaly dominated by Łukaszenka and it will be hard to change it.
2. Do you think that Swietłana has a chance to become a president?
In current situation is unlikly.
3. What would happen with Łukaszenko if society won?
He would probably run away from the country. Maybe to russia.
4. If Łukaszenko loses, will Belarus have a chance to become a part of UE? Or maybe this country would stay under control and influence of Russia?
Maybe if Łukaszenka will lose there will be a chance for Belarus to become a part of the UE.
Perhaps and i for sure hope so, but i don't think it will be the next one. People of Belarus probably have to wait till Łukaszenko is no longer able to hold the country in his grasp and act in that instant.
2. Do you think that Swietłana has a chance to become a president?
Chance? Of course. Realistic one? Not really. True possibility of anyone becoming a president of Belarus would require democratic, not rigged elections and unfortunately there hasn't been one in decades.
3. What would happen with Łukaszenko if society won?
If by "society won" we mean giving back the power to the people/democratically elected government Łukaszenko would probably have to flee the country to Russia or be tried by Belarus' state tribunal or even by International Court of Justice in Hague.
4. If Łukaszenko loses, will Belarus have a chance to become a part of UE? Or maybe this country would stay under control and influence of Russia?
Becoming a EU country is a very long process, there are numerous requirements to be met. Most younger people would probably vote for becoming a part of the EU, but I'm not certain there would be a majority. Additionally, even if they would get accepted that wouldn't cut Russia's influence instantenously, it would also take years to fully sever those ties. With Łukaszenko as a president however, none of the above is even a possibility.
2. I don't think so. She is the first person that show people in Belarus what resistance mean. Youngster wants changes so she is a symbol and I think first step to overthrow Lukashenka regime but she has not chance to become a president.
3. I can just imagine. But i think he would run away to Russia as Wiktor Janukowycz did.
4. I don't think so that Belarus will become part of UE in the nearest future because even Lukashenko loses, Belarus is strongly integrated with Russia's economy system and Russia doesn't want to lose such an ally. But I believe that someday there may be a breakpoint and separation from influence of Russia and establishing cooperation with the UE.
I do not think this will happen in the near future.
2. Do you think that Swietłana has a chance to become a president?
It seems to me that anyone who is in opposition to the current government and has social support is able to become president.
3. What would happen with Łukaszenko if society won?
He would probably flee to a country that would guarantee him inviolability and live from the money collected during his dictatorship
4. If Łukaszenko loses, will Belarus have a chance to become a part of UE? Or maybe this country would stay under control and influence of Russia?
To be able to join the European Union, a number of requirements must be met. This would be difficult for Belarus at the current economic level. Moreover, Russia would not facilitate such a decision by Belarus and could force the consolidation of contacts with itself
I think everyone who try overthrow Lukaszenko have chance to become a president but I don't know how many people in Belarus really supports current president. Of course nobody can't win when results will be faked by Lukaszenka.
There are two ways, first angry people with police and army catch and kill him or when situation will be very hot he will try escape to other totalitarian country.
Belarus need a lot of changes to become a part of UE, it isn't easy process and we need to remember that Russia have a lot of control and influence in this country and Putin won't give it away easily. In my opinion the best options for Belarus after Lukaszenko is try to make money for be connector between UE and Russia.
I think that Swietlana has no chance to become president. I think that there will be someone new to be replaced from Russia.
If Lukashenko is overthrown, he will probably take as much money as possible and go somewhere.
Belarus has no chance to be a part of the European Union so far, it is a long process.
1. I cannot answer this question whether there will be free elections in Belarus. I don't follow news from Belarus at the moment, so it's hard to say. But it would certainly be better - in the sense of free elections, we are free people.
2. As I said above, I am not interested in politics in Belarus, so I cannot answer this question.
3. Same as with the above questions - I am unable to answer. But I can only guess that he will be "burned at the stake". Either way, these won't be good times for him.
4. It's hard to say - maybe yes, maybe not. A lot can change in the upcoming elections, if they are held. I keep my fingers crossed for a free Belarus!
I think an official disapproval by other countries will lead to a real change. Perhaps not now, but we are getting a foot in the democracy door.
2. Do you think that Swietłana has a chance to become a president?
Similarly to my first answer I don't think we are getting there yet. All revolutions pay high cost of human life, hopefully Swietłana won't be paying the highest price. With the support from the rest of the world I think she will safe but running as a president? I really don't know
3. What would happen with Łukaszenko if society won?
Hopefully, claiming lawful state will lead to lawful consequences for people like łukaszaenka and not lynchment
4. If Łukaszenko loses, will Belarus have a chance to become a part of UE? Or maybe this country would stay under control and influence of Russia?
I believe by the time Belarus situation changes UE might be in its lowest point and be unwilling to welcome new countries.
2. I don't think it is realistic right now. In order to become president she would need to come back to Belarus, lead the revolution and overthrow Łukaszenko.
3. The best thing to do, would be putting him on a fair trial, so he could answer for all the bad things he did. Łukaszenko seems as a type of person that does not surrender, so he'll probably leave the country and live somewhere in Russia or Cuba.
4. That depends on who will win. I think it is possible that Belarus will have a chance of becoming a part of UE if society will chose a leader who will reasonably push the country in that direction. It is also possible that after Łukaszenko some other Russia backed figure will rule Belarus.
In my opinion no. Well not never but as long as Łukaszenka is alive then free elections is not possible.
2. Do you think that Swietłana has a chance to become a president?
Well not now for sure. But if Łukaszenka dies and there will be a free elections then she has a chance.
3. What would happen with Łukaszenko if society won?
I think that he would escape to Russia. There he will be living to the end of his life.
4. If Łukaszenko loses, will Belarus have a chance to become a part of UE? Or maybe this country would stay under control and influence of Russia?
Well it is hard to say. For example Ukraine was supposed to be in the EU after riots but to this day they are not. So propably it will be the same story.